[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201622
SWODY1
SPC AC 201620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
MSS 15 WSW BGM 25 N HGR 10 NNE BKW 30 S JKL 25 WSW DYR 15 SW FSM 20
NE LTS 30 S DHT 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 20 NNE LAA 45 ENE DDC 35 NNE CNU
35 ENE COU 15 NW CMI 15 S BEH 45 W MBS APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MFE 35 SSE AUS
CLL 50 ENE ACT 75 NE P07 95 SW P07 ...CONT... 10 WSW YUM 10 NW BLH
65 WNW EED 10 WSW DRA 45 ESE TPH 55 SSE EKO 40 SSE ENV EVW 45 ESE
RKS 35 NW LAR 55 NW CDR 25 NNE FOD 25 WNW DBQ 15 WNW OSH 15 SE IMT
10 WNW CMX ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 SSE EWB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL SUPPRESS SHORT WAVE
RIDGE INDICATED OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES ON THE 12Z
UPPER AIR DATA...AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW WILL TRACK EWD
ACROSS ONTARIO AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES... CONTINUING WSWWD INTO SRN KS REGION.  IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT... SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA FROM NRN OH INTO SERN IL.  THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.

...OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
WARM AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS PRESENT FROM SERN IL INTO
SWRN OH ATTM WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 85-90F RANGE AND
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MODEST OWING TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STRONG AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG.  RUC HOURLY DATA INDICATES CAP IS
WEAKENING ACROSS INDIANA AND OH...AND CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
IN VERTICAL EXTENT ALONG BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR GUS TO SLO IN
INDIANA/SRN IL. THIS MAY SERVE AS PRECURSOR TO ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW ABOVE THE PBL IS MODERATELY STRONG
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 40KT WINDS EVIDENT ON IND AND CLE VAD
PROFILES IN THE 3-4 KM LAYER.  THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD WITH A THREAT FOR MORE
CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
INDIANA..OH..NRN KY THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING WRN PARTS OF
PA AND NY AND NWRN WV THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

...KS/OK INTO MO/NRN AR...
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN MO INTO NERN OK THEN WWD NEAR
THE OK/KS BORDER.  AIRMASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND CONTINUED HEATING /ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY IN OK/WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS
THIS AREA IS GENERALLY WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER
CELLS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

..WEISS/GUYER.. 08/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.