[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201943
SWODY1
SPC AC 201942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
MSS 15 WSW BGM HGR 15 NW SSU 50 SE LOZ 30 SW DYR 15 SW FSM FSI 35 NW
CDS 35 SSE DHT 40 W EHA 50 N EHA 35 WNW P28 30 WSW TBN 25 SW STL 20
N HUF 15 S BEH 50 SW HTL 25 E PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW YUM 10 NW BLH
65 WNW EED 10 WSW DRA 45 ESE TPH 55 SSE EKO 40 SSE ENV EVW 45 ESE
RKS 35 NW LAR 55 NW CDR 25 NNE FOD 25 WNW DBQ 15 WNW OSH 15 SE IMT
10 WNW CMX ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 SSE EWB ...CONT... 65 WNW MFE 35
SSE AUS CLL 50 ENE ACT 75 NE P07 95 SW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
CNTRL NY/PA SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
COLD FRONT AND IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM SRN IL NEWD INTO OH
AND WRN PA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F
HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG/ DESPITE RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. PLAN
VIEW PROFILER/VWP AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SITUATED WITHIN A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO.

DESPITE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS OBSERVED IN REGIONAL
PROFILER AND VWP TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY
STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR BOWING OR LEWP
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND SWATH. EXPECT THIS DAMAGING
WIND THREAT TO SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NY/PA
TONIGHT...PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILITY.

...SRN MO/NRN AR INTO SRN KS AND OK...
TSTMS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT
AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE HOT AND MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ATTENDANT TO LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
REMAIN N OF REGION WITH GENERALLY SWLY-WSWLY 10-20 KT WINDS AT 500
MB BEING OBSERVED INVOF OF FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE THE RATHER WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE SHOULD STORMS ORGANIZE A COLD POOL.

...ERN CO...
TSTMS ARE INTENSIFYING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO WHERE AIR
MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG.
APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SWRN CO AND NERN NM /PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LOCAL PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
IS QUITE WEAK...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...ERN NEB/WRN IA...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL NEB INTO W-CNTRL IA. IT APPEARS
THAT DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
THIS DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS AREA WITH
IMPLIED MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT UNSUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...IT APPEARS THAT MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL
LARGELY HAVE TO INITIATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 08/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.