[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200534
SWODY1
SPC AC 200532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
MSS 15 WSW BGM 25 N HGR 10 NNE BKW 30 S JKL 25 WSW DYR 15 SW FSM 30
E CSM 30 S DHT 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 25 N LAA 45 ENE DDC 35 NNE CNU 35
ENE COU 15 NW CMI 15 S BEH 45 W MBS APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 15 NW BLH
15 N NID 55 NE MER 40 WNW TVL 30 NW RNO 40 WNW U31 55 S EKO 30 WNW
DPG 30 NW EVW 35 SE RWL 55 NW CDR 50 ENE ANW 25 SE YKN 10 WSW MCW 20
NNE LSE 45 SW IWD 25 W HIB RRT ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 NNW BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO SATURDAY. THE 
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN CANADA WITH TRAILING FRONT
MOVING EWD TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN QUEBEC SWWD THROUGH WI...IA AND
NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST IN THE
WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT FROM OK AND KS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY.

...OH VALLEY AREA...

SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL BE DICTATED LARGELY BY EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING STORMS. LARGE MCS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD INTO
KS. RECENT RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS AN MCV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION
OVER NRN MO. A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXIST DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL. TIMING THE NRN MO ACTIVITY PUTS IT
OVER NRN IND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AND STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
THROUGH SRN CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDING OVER IL AND IND EWD INTO OH...SRN LOWER MI AND WRN PA
DURING THE DAY. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WHERE SURFACE HEATING
CAN OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AND S OF ONGOING STORMS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500
TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. THE
STRONGEST WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED FROM LOWER MI INTO
PARTS OF IND...OH AND PA ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS...PROVIDED THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES SUFFICIENTLY. STORMS
MAY INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT
MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY WARM MID LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WHICH WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES.

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS INTO THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500
J/KG POSSIBLE. HEIGHTS RISE AND MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND THESE COULD SERVE AS
LIMITING FACTORS TO THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION. STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.


...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

A SECONDARY AREA OF STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEB...IA AND NERN CO WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
LIMIT CONVERGENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD
SERVE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS OR HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 08/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.