[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200102
SWODY1
SPC AC 200101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
HTS 30 NNW 5I3 20 ESE JKL 40 SSW SDF 20 ESE VIH CNU 30 WSW P28 20
ESE DDC 45 SW RSL 25 W MHK 15 W FNB 60 SE OMA 20 ESE FOD 40 SE MKT
35 S MSP 35 WSW EAU 25 SSE EAU 15 W JVL 15 SW CGX 40 NNE LAF 25 SSW
DAY 30 NNW HTS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE PBG 50 ENE BGM
30 SSE CXY 20 SW ILM ...CONT... 75 E MQT 45 W PLN 30 SSW MBL 10 SSE
BEH 30 NNW MIE 25 SE UNI 10 NNW HLG 40 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSE DRT
35 SSE BWD 35 S ELD 10 S 0A8 45 ENE RMG 45 NE CSV 15 SW PAH 10 SSW
UMN 40 SW END 40 ESE PVW MAF 20 SW P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 45 NNW
TRM 40 NNW DAG 60 W DRA 40 NNW DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E EKO 50 S TWF 30
WSW MLD 30 WNW BPI 45 NNW SHR 15 N REJ 25 S PIR 25 NW MHE 25 S BRD
20 NNW ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SRN OH VALLEY...

...CNTRL AND ERN KS THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS AND OH VALLEYS...


STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF A CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SWRN THROUGH ERN KS AND
INTO NRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE SWLY
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT FROM KS INTO
MO...AND THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME SWWD BACKBUILDING. HOWEVER...STORMS
OVER NERN KS HAVE DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO FORWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH ERN KS INTO CNTRL MO. VERTICAL SHEAR
REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND
SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HAIL SIZE. 

ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME OVER SRN PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...WRN NY THROUGH WRN PA...

NARROW SPACE AND TIME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
OVER WRN NY AND WRN PA APPEARS TO BE CLOSING. SOME OVERLAP OF
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PERSISTS IN VICINITY OF A
N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM WRN NY INTO WRN PA. TENDENCY HAS BEEN
FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM
FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGER...BUT WHERE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVELY STABLE. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO OVER NWRN PA AS THEY
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...TRENDS SHOULD BE
FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.


...NERN CO THROUGH SWRN NEB AND WRN KS...

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN NEB. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 02Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO STABILIZE.

..DIAL.. 08/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.