[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191946
SWODY1
SPC AC 191945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
SYR 35 NNW ELM 45 E BFD 20 NE DUJ 20 SSE FKL 20 E YNG 25 NW ERI.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
FNB 15 E OMA 40 WSW SPW 25 NNE SPW 35 E FRM 20 WNW DBQ MLI 10 ENE
BRL 30 SW BRL 10 E IRK 35 WSW IRK 35 NE FNB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW
MSS 25 E IPT 20 WSW MRB 15 ESE SSU 35 SSW PSK 30 WNW TRI 40 SW LEX
25 E MDH 25 ENE CNU ICT 25 SW DDC 55 WSW HLC 35 W EAR 30 ENE BUB 25
W FSD 30 SE AXN 45 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 SSE RFD 30 NE FWA 10 WSW DTW
55 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 20 NNW LCI
25 WNW GON JFK ...CONT... 65 WNW ANJ 45 E ESC 30 WSW MBL 20 WNW MKG
35 NNE BEH 15 N AZO 20 ESE LAN 10 NE MBS 30 SW APN 30 E PLN 40 SE
ANJ ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 45 NNW TRM 40 NNW DAG 60 W DRA 40 NNW DRA 60
SW ELY 25 E EKO 50 S TWF 30 WSW MLD 30 WNW BPI 50 SSW COD 15 SE BIL
55 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR
55 NW ESF 35 NW GLH 15 SSW ARG 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 40 W OKC 35 ESE
CDS 35 NE BGS 35 W SJT 30 WNW TPL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABQ 25 ESE LVS 35 NNW
CAO 25 NNE TAD 20 E ALS 45 WSW ALS 25 SSE FMN 35 NE GUP 10 SE GNT
ABQ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF NWRN PA AND WRN NY...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
IA AND PART OF NRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO CNTRL PA/NY...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
SWRN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF 40-50 KT 500 MB FLOW ACROSS
ERN LOWER MI AND LAKES ERIE INTO ONTARIO. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER CNTRL LAKE
HURON WITH A WAVY WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED SEWD INTO CNTRL LAKE
ONTARIO AND THEN SWWD INTO WRN PA. IMMEDIATELY TO THE W...A WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONE DEMARKED TRANSITION FROM SSWLY WINDS OVER ERN OH TO
SSELY OVER FAR WRN PA. FARTHER TO THE W...COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM
SURFACE LOW SWWD ACROSS NWRN OH...NRN IND INTO NRN IL.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SWRN ONTARIO NEAR INTERSECTION OF WARM
FRONT AND CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY MAY TEND TO BUILD SWD INTO PORTIONS OF
WRN NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS HEATING/MOISTENING OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AIDS IN ELIMINATION
OF REMAINING CAP. A NARROW N-S CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY STRONGER SHEAR
BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS
OF CNTRL NY/PA THIS EVENING BEFORE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING
EFFECTIVELY STABILIZES BOUNDARY-LAYER.

...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN KS
INTO SRN NEB OWING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT PER 18Z
TOP AND OMA SOUNDINGS. WHILE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH S-CNTRL CANADA UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE N OF
REGION...MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS
NRN MO AND SRN/CNTRL IA...ALONG WITH MERGING CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS....SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION/GROWTH OF
ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR TOP TO GBD TO NEAR DDC.
HERE...STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35-40
KT SWLY WINDS AT 6 KM AGL WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR EVEN
POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD
2033 WHICH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

FARTHER TO THE N...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED
DESTABILIZATION ALONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MN SWWD INTO NERN NEB.
SOME VERTICAL CUMULUS GROWTH IS BEING OBSERVED OVER CNTRL MN...AND
AS STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINS
OVERSPREADING FRONTAL ZONE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HERE TOO...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LINEAR
FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY WOULD
SUGGEST THAT LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES MAY BE MORE THE
PREFERRED CONVECTIVE MODE.

MERGER OF COLD FRONTAL STORMS AND NRN KS/SRN NEB CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
MAY OCCUR OVER IA SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING. HERE...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS /AND
POSSIBLE BOW ECHO/ WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

..MEAD.. 08/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.