[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191647
SWODY1
SPC AC 191646

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
ROC 35 E BFD 30 ESE LBE 25 W MGW 20 NNW ZZV 15 SE CLE 70 E MTC.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
CNK 15 WSW OLU 25 NNE SUX 30 ESE SPW 30 NNW CID 25 SW MLI 10 WNW UIN
50 N SZL 30 N TOP 25 NNE CNK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
MSS 10 SSE IPT 20 WSW MRB 10 NE SSU 35 SSW PSK 30 WNW TRI 40 SW LEX
25 E MDH 20 E CNU ICT 30 ESE RSL 35 WSW HLC 35 SE LBF 30 NNW BUB 20
NE MHE 35 NNW RWF 20 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 SSE RFD 15 SE FWA 10 WSW
DTW 55 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 45 NNW TRM
40 NNW DAG 60 W DRA 40 NNW DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E EKO 50 S TWF 30 WSW
MLD 30 WNW BPI 50 SSW COD 15 SE BIL 55 NNE GGW ...CONT... 65 WNW ANJ
45 E ESC 30 WSW MBL 20 WNW MKG 35 NNE BEH 15 N AZO 20 ESE LAN 10 NE
MBS 30 SW APN 30 E PLN 40 SE ANJ ...CONT... 30 NNW BML 20 NNW LCI 25
WNW GON JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR
55 NW ESF 35 NW GLH 15 SSW ARG 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 40 W OKC 35 ESE
CDS 35 NE BGS 35 W SJT 30 WNW TPL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABQ 25 ESE LVS 35 NNW
CAO 25 NNE TAD 20 E ALS 45 WSW ALS 25 SSE FMN 35 NE GUP 10 SE GNT
ABQ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN OH..WRN
PA..WRN NY..NRN WV PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB..NERN KS..IA..NRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
COMPACT UPPER LOW APPROACHING NRN LAKE HURON EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
AND OPEN INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPSTREAM LOW MOVING
ACROSS SRN PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD THE MANITOBA/ND/NRN MN
BORDER REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW NEARING LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD INTO ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD FROM THE LOW
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS FRONT
CONTINUES WWD/NWWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO SRN MN.
 A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LAKE HURON LOW INTO CENTRAL VA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD.  A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM NRN MN
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD AND EXTEND
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY...
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO THIN ACROSS OH WHERE STRONG HEATING IS NOW
OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S.  THIS
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PARTS OF NY AND PA
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F COUPLED WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH
MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  DYNAMIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE HURON UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS LOWER MI/SWRN ONTARIO MAY BE STRONGEST OVER
CANADA...HOWEVER WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER
DEFINED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH 12Z ETA
GENERATING LITTLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WHEREAS 15Z RUC AND
09Z SREF GUIDANCE ETAKF AND RSM MEMBERS INDICATE GREATER LIKELIHOOD
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITH ANY PERSISTENT STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...WITH
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW
TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
ELEVATED STRONG STORMS ARE OCCURRING ATTM OVER PARTS OF KS.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALONG/NORTH OF AN EAST/WEST DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN KS INTO NRN MO.  THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY
SPREAD NEWD TOWARD ERN NEB AND WRN IA THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-4000
J/KG.  ETA AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB..NERN KS..IA..AND
NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITHIN SRN EDGE OF STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THREAT FOR CONSIDERABLE SEVERE STORM
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF SRN MN.

..WEISS/GUYER.. 08/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.