[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191257
SWODY1
SPC AC 191255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
ROC 35 E BFD 30 ESE LBE 25 W MGW 20 NNW ZZV 15 SE CLE 70 E MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
MSS 10 SSE IPT 20 WSW MRB 10 NE SSU 35 SSW PSK 30 WNW TRI 40 SW LEX
25 E MDH 20 E CNU ICT 30 ESE RSL 35 WSW HLC 35 SE LBF 30 NNW BUB 20
NE MHE 35 NNW RWF 20 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 WNW CGX 35 SE SBN 15 E JXN
45 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN
RAL 20 WSW PMD 25 WNW EDW 50 W DRA 55 N DRA 30 ESE ELY 15 S MLD 40
SW COD 30 ENE BIL 55 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR
40 NNW ESF 45 NW GWO 15 N JBR 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 35 E CSM 40 SSW CDS
30 SSE MAF 35 W SJT 45 WSW BWD 30 WNW TPL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ABQ 25 SE LVS
45 N CAO 30 ESE LIC LIC 20 NE COS 55 W PUB 45 WSW ALS 10 SW FMN 25
NE GUP 50 NW ONM 35 SE ABQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 10 NNE LCI
25 NW GON TTN 35 SSW ACY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR GRT LKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD SWATH EXTENDING
FROM THE CNTRL PLNS AND LWR MO VLY EWD TO THE CNTRL/NRN APLCNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR MID AUGUST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
CONTINUES ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS AND STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM
AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY.  THE SURFACE LOW WITH
LEAD IMPULSE...NOW NEAR APN...SHOULD OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES E INTO 
ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE NE ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NY
/PA.  TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
LWR OH VLY...BUT EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION LIKELY WILL BE
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY OVERNIGHT MCSS OVER REGION.

FARTHER W...MCS OUTFLOW WILL ALSO COMPLICATE SURFACE PATTERN OVER
THE CNTRL PLNS AND MID/LWR MO VLYS.  THIS MAY LEAVE TWO MAIN AREAS
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TOWARD REGION...ONE
ALONG COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SE SD/NRN/ERN NEB...AND ANOTHER INVOF
MCS OUTFLOW OVER NRN PARTS OF KS/MO.
 
...LWR GRT LKS...
TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WARM FRONT CROSSING ERN OH/WRN PA AND WRN
NY.  COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S/ AND 40+ KT DEEP WNW SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  COUPLED WITH ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
INVOF WARM FRONT AND LOW LCLS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH REGIONAL
PWS...SETUP MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.

WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL FAVOR STORM MOTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE COOLER AIR.  HOWEVER...PRESENT AND EXPECTED AFTERNOON
SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT A SUFFICIENTLY WIDE CORRIDOR
FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST TO
SUPPORT AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.  THE CONVECTION SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT CONTINUE E AND WEAKEN BY
EARLY EVENING. 

...MID/LWR MO VLY TO CNTRL PLNS/MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 4000 J PER KG/
WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT OVER PARTS OF SE SD...ERN AND SRN NEB...WRN IA...NRN AND
ERN KS AND MUCH OF MO LATER TODAY.  THE NRN PART OF THIS REGION WILL
ALSO EXPERIENCE STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR AS BAND OF 40+ KT WLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH SPREADS TOWARD THE MID MS VLY.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ATTM CONCERNING WHERE THE STRONGEST/MOST
SUSTAINED STORMS WILL FORM.  BUT PRIND ARE THAT CONVERGENCE INVOF
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH INTERSECTION...AND EXPECTED
LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY...MAY YIELD A FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER NE NEB/SE SD.  ANOTHER FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY MAY
BE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL KS ESE INTO CNTRL
IL.

GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WITH BOTH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW
CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL/HIGH WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR AT
MID LEVELS AND INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST THAT ONE OR TWO OF
THE CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS
AND/OR SUPERCELLS THAT EXTEND AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
AND POSSIBLY HAIL INTO THE NIGHT E INTO THE MID MS VLY.  PARTS OF
THE MID/LWR MO VLY REGION MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS OF THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO BECOME MORE APPARENT.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.