[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190607
SWODY1
SPC AC 190605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
MSS 10 SSE IPT 20 WSW MRB 20 SSE CRW 40 SSE MVN 35 NE CNU 10 SE SLN
50 SSW HSI 30 NNW BUB 20 NE MHE 35 NNW RWF 20 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20
WNW CGX 40 S SBN 30 E FWA 15 SSE ARB 40 SSE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 10 SW MPV
PSF TTN 35 SSW ACY ...CONT... 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN RAL 20 WSW PMD 25
WNW EDW 50 W DRA 55 N DRA 30 ESE ELY 15 S MLD 40 SW COD 30 ENE BIL
55 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ABQ 20 NW TCC
35 NNW EHA 20 NNW GLD 40 NE LIC 20 WSW LIC 55 W PUB 45 WSW ALS 10 SW
FMN 25 NE GUP 50 NW ONM 35 SE ABQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR
40 NNW ESF 45 NW GWO 15 N JBR 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 35 E CSM 40 SSW CDS
30 SSE MAF 35 W SJT 45 WSW BWD 30 WNW TPL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCLUDE AND
SHIFT EWD INTO SERN ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN NY AND PA. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SWWD THROUGH NRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER W THE
OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH SD WILL SHIFT EWD
AND EXTEND SWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NEB. 
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NEB AND INTO ERN
CO. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH PARTS OF IA
AND INTO NRN IL.


...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SERVE TO REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM ERN NEB INTO IA. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO
VERY UNSTABLE FROM ERN NEB INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
RESULT IN MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WHERE SURFACE HEATING OCCURS. OWING
TO PROXIMITY OF GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE LOW LEVEL JET
ACCOMPANYING THE NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE
STRONGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW...INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT
FROM ERN NEB INTO IA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT FROM ERN NEB INTO IA AS WELL AS
FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS IT SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.


...NERN U.S....

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION AND LIFT GENERALLY IN VICINITY OF AND E OF THE N-S
ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF PA...THE MID ATLANTIC AND WRN NY
DURING THE DAY. THE WARM SECTOR W OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE
AS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NEWD AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS. THE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE INFLOW TO THE STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO PROVIDED STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 08/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.