[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190108
SWODY1
SPC AC 190107

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
MHK BIE 20 NE LWD 35 SSE CID 40 W JVL 40 SSE CWA 20 NNW GRB 30 S TVC
MBS 30 ENE FDY 35 WSW CMH 40 WSW LUK 45 NNE EVV 20 ESE BLV JEF 25 S
TOP 15 ESE MHK 40 NNW MHK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE DRT 55 W AUS 25
E ACT 10 SE TXK 20 ENE FYV 40 WSW JLN 20 WSW END 60 SSW CDS 45 SE
MAF 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... CZZ TRM 55 ESE DAG 35 SW LAS 15 NNE DRA 30
SE TPH 20 NNW TPH 45 SSW U31 30 SE LOL 30 WSW WMC 60 N WMC 60 NW OWY
25 ESE BOI 60 SSW 27U 55 SSW MSO 15 E 3TH 20 SSW CTB 50 ENE GTF 25
WNW BIL 45 WNW REJ 35 NW BIS 70 NE MOT ...CONT... 25 WSW MSS 30 SSW
UCA 35 SSE IPT 15 N DCA 30 WNW ORF 30 N HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LIC LHX 30 E TAD
25 NW CAO 30 ENE CAO 20 NE EHA 25 NNW GCK 50 WSW HLC 20 NNW GLD 40
ENE LIC 40 S LIC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEYS...

...GREAT LAKES THROUGH OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN S CNTRL WI ESEWD THROUGH
SERN WI AND INTO SRN LOWER MI. A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH ERN IA...EXTREME
NRN MO INTO NERN KS. A SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM NRN IL
NWD INTO SRN WI. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE
IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM NERN KS THROUGH IL AND SERN WI WITH MLCAPE
FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL FARTHER EWD
INTO MI...IND AND OH WITH MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS MAINLY OVER SERN WI AND WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER
NERN IL. STORMS OVER SERN WI ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ENHANCED WHERE STORMS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE COOL
SIDE OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LCL HEIGHTS...0-1 KM
LOW LEVEL HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT EXIST. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...TORNADO THREAT FARTHER EAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
LIMITING EFFECTS OF THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER.

FARTHER SWWD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM
NERN KS...NRN MO INTO IL. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MORE VEERED TO SWLY
IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HAIL SIZE MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF
-5C. OVERNIGHT...THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID
MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY. STORMS OVER MO AND KS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS. THOUGH SOME BACKBUILDING WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS MAY BECOME
FORWARD PROPAGATING ONCE A COLD POOL IS ESTABLISHED WITH AN
INCREASING ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD EWD.

...NWRN NEB THROUGH SD...

THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT IN ERN SD. OTHER
STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING FARTHER W OVER WRN NEB INTO ERN WY
AND WRN SD WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST
OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL.. 08/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.