[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181958
SWODY1
SPC AC 181957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
BIE 15 NE BIE 35 ENE LWD 40 W CID 20 N ALO 20 S EAU 10 NE AUW 15 SE
TVC 15 E MBS 15 NNW MFD 50 SE DAY 15 E BMG 35 S MTO ALN 10 SE COU
SZL 15 E MHK 30 S BIE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
MBG 35 WSW ABR 35 WNW HON 10 SW 9V9 55 WNW VTN 30 WSW CDR 15 ESE DGW
45 NNE CPR 35 WNW GCC 30 S 4BQ 25 W REJ 30 WNW MBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MSS 35 NNW MSV
15 SSE AVP 10 NNW BWI 35 SW NHK 25 NE ECG ...CONT... DRT 55 WNW AUS
45 ESE DAL 20 NW PGO TUL 20 NW OKC 65 ESE LBB 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07
...CONT... 10 E CZZ 30 WNW TRM 30 NE RAL 20 WNW DAG 40 NW DRA 40 SE
TPH TPH 55 NW TPH 30 SE LOL 45 WSW WMC 60 N WMC 55 NW OWY 25 ESE BOI
60 SSW 27U 55 SSW MSO 25 WSW FCA 45 NE FCA 50 SW HVR 75 WNW MLS 30 S
GDV 40 NNW DIK 55 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N LHX 20 WNW LHX
20 SE TAD 40 ESE RTN 15 E CAO 25 N EHA 50 E LAA 40 S GLD 40 SW GLD
45 ESE LIC 35 N LHX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN WY AND
WRN/CNTRL SD...

...UPPER MIDWEST EWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND LOWER/CNTRL OH
VALLEY...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT...MID/UPPER-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN INTO WI. AN
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN 500 MB WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH 35-45 KT WLY FLOW FROM ERN
NEB EWD INTO WRN IND. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER SERN MN/W-CNTRL WI WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ESEWD
ACROSS SRN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI...NRN OH AND CNTRL PA. TRAILING
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW SWWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO NERN
KS...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SWRN MN/NWRN IA.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS NEWD TONIGHT
INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES.  EXPECT GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ESEWD
ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS FORECAST.  MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF
1500-2500 J/KG/ AIR MASS COUPLED WITH 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND
A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST FROM NEAR
SURFACE LOW SEWD ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM
ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY
ENHANCED.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ALONG TRAILING CONFLUENCE ZONE AS FAR WWD AS NRN MO/NERN MO.
BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN WAKE OF WRN GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE
MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG NRN EDGE
OF STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35
KTS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

FINALLY...ADDITIONAL STORMS IN PROGRESS FROM WRN KY INTO SRN OH HAVE
DEVELOPED WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS ON THE SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL.

...WY/SD...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL ND/SD THEN WWD INTO
CNTRL WY. RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES WITHIN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY-LAYER TO WARM OVER W-CNTRL/SWRN SD
INTO ERN WY WITH ATMOSPHERE NOW WEAKLY UNSTABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF
ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS WY AND S-CNTRL MT. INCREASING WIND
FIELDS WITH APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
THAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MORE ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT N
OF FRONT INTO CNTRL SD. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

...CNTRL KS INTO NERN TX PNHDL...
AIR MASS ALONG WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS HEATED WELL
INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED CBL AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. CURRENT GRENADA CO AND HAVILAND KS PROFILERS INDICATE
SWLY 30 KT WINDS AT 6 KM AGL. DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OBSERVED OVER
THE NERN TX PNHDL AND LATEST NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 08/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.