[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181614
SWODY1
SPC AC 181612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
BIE 15 NE BIE 35 ENE LWD 40 W CID 20 NW ALO 40 SSE RST 25 S LSE 25 N
MSN 25 SW LAN 30 NE FWA 35 NW LUK 35 S BMG 15 E MVN 35 SW BLV 20 N
TBN 25 WSW SZL 15 E MHK 30 S BIE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
MBG 35 WSW ABR 35 WNW HON 10 SW 9V9 55 WNW VTN 30 WSW CDR 15 ESE DGW
45 NNE CPR 35 WNW GCC 30 S 4BQ 25 W REJ 30 WNW MBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 55 WNW AUS 45 ESE
DAL 20 NW PGO TUL 20 NW OKC 65 ESE LBB 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07
...CONT... 10 E CZZ 30 WNW TRM 30 NE RAL 20 WNW DAG 40 NW DRA 40 SE
TPH TPH 55 NW TPH 20 WSW NFL 40 ENE SVE 75 SE 4LW 85 SSE BNO BOI 70
NNW SUN 55 SSW MSO 25 WSW FCA 45 NE FCA 50 SW HVR 55 NE BIL 35 N 4BQ
20 SW DIK 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 25 WSW MSS 35 NNW MSV 15 SSE AVP 10
NNW BWI 35 SW NHK 25 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N LHX 20 WNW LHX
20 SE TAD 40 ESE RTN 15 E CAO 25 N EHA 50 E LAA 40 S GLD 40 SW GLD
45 ESE LIC 35 N LHX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MID
MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY AND SD...

...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS WI/IL AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.

FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN IL.  THESE STORMS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CHI AREA AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI AND
NORTHERN IND LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS REGION...ALLOWING AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE AND PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. 
MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AIR MASS FARTHER WEST ACROSS EASTERN IA IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING IN
WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG IN THIS REGION. 
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF IA BEFORE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...SUGGESTING AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA.  DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME NEGATIVE LARGE
SCALE FACTORS FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AFFECTING NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AND IND.
 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL.

...SD/WY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
STATES.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHWEST WY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD ATOP COOL/MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING.  SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
AREA...POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.