[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181233
SWODY1
SPC AC 181231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
FNB 15 NE FNB 35 ENE LWD 25 E DSM 35 E FOD 20 NE MCW 25 S LSE 25 N
MSN 15 N BEH 20 SSW AZO 30 NE FWA 35 NW LUK 25 WSW SDF 30 E PAH 20 W
PAH 30 SE VIH 25 WSW SZL 25 E TOP 25 S FNB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
MBG 35 WSW ABR 35 WNW HON 10 SW 9V9 55 WNW VTN 30 WSW CDR 15 ESE DGW
45 NNE CPR 35 WNW GCC 30 S 4BQ 25 W REJ 30 WNW MBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ART 35 NE BGM
15 ESE AVP 10 NNW BWI 35 SW NHK 25 NE ECG ...CONT... DRT 30 ENE JCT
35 SSW PRX 15 NNE PGO 10 NE BVO END 65 ESE LBB 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07
...CONT... 15 W SBA 20 NE SMX 50 ENE PRB 35 SW BIH 45 W TPH 25 SW
U31 35 NNW U31 20 SSE WMC 35 W WMC 60 WNW WMC 50 E 4LW 40 SSE BNO 45
WNW BOI 50 SSW S80 20 SSE S06 15 WNW FCA 35 W CTB 50 SW HVR 75 E LWT
40 N MLS 20 NE SDY 55 N ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE COS 30 NNE TAD
50 W EHA 25 N EHA 20 NNW GCK 35 SSE MCK 25 WNW MCK 30 E AKO 30 NNE
COS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA/NRN MO TO WRN WI
AND IL/INDIANA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN WY INTO WRN/CENTRAL
SD....

...IA/MO TO IL/INDIANA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN IA/SWRN MN THIS MORNING WILL
EJECT EWD TO LOWER MI BY TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES CONTINUES EWD TO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY COMPLEX
FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE NRN PLAINS.  OF GREATEST
CONSEQUENCE IS A LOW ACROSS NW IA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWD AND SWWD TO CENTRAL KS...AND A WARM EXTENDING
EWD NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER AND THEN SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND
ERN KY.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  ADDITIONALLY...MID-UPPER
WLY FLOW OF 40-60 KT AND SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND PERSISTENT
BOWING SEGMENTS.

THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS SWRN WI/ERN IA MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL...WHILE THE ELEVATED
STORMS NOW OVER CENTRAL MO SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHING
NE IA...WITH INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
 INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR E OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE INITIAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS INTO THE LATE
EVENING.  FARTHER SW...THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN MO
AREA SHOULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.


...SD/ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/ERN WY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES.
 RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE
POST-FRONTAL/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...
WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS.  CONVECTION IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON MAY SPREAD EWD AS ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SD TONIGHT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH THE INITIAL ERN WY/WRN SD ACTIVITY...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT IN SD WITH
ELEVATED STORMS.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.