[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180601
SWODY1
SPC AC 180600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
MTW 40 NE FWA 25 S DAY 35 E OWB 35 NE PAH 45 SW STL 30 WSW COU 20
SSE OJC 15 NNE TOP 35 N FNB 50 W DSM 25 NNW FOD 10 SE MKT 20 WSW EAU
10 ENE AUW 30 SSE MTW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N
PHP 45 WNW VTN 45 WNW BFF 25 NW DGW 10 NE GCC REJ 65 N PHP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 10 NNW ALB
20 SW ISP ...CONT... 15 W SBA 20 NE SMX 50 ENE PRB 35 SW BIH 45 W
TPH 15 SSW U31 20 SE BAM 30 NNE BAM 35 W WMC 60 WNW WMC 50 E 4LW 40
SSE BNO 45 WNW BOI 50 SSW S80 20 SSE S06 15 WNW FCA 35 W CTB 50 SW
HVR 75 E LWT 40 N MLS 45 NNW DIK 20 WSW MOT 60 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CEZ 20 NW SAF
25 SE ALS 25 NW TAD 30 ENE TAD 50 W EHA 35 NW LBL 25 NNE GCK 35 SSE
MCK 25 WNW MCK 30 E AKO 30 W LIC 40 S 4FC EGE PUC 50 SW PUC 20 SSW
4BL 30 SW CEZ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO MN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWWD THROUGH SRN SD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWWD THROUGH IA AND INTO NERN KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO EXTEND FROM THE
SURFACE LOW EWD THROUGH CNTRL WI. FARTHER W...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL
REGIME...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...

THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WITHIN THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT DOWNSTREAM FROM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OR REINFORCEMENT OF AN
E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM SRN MN THROUGH CNTRL WI E OF THE SURFACE
LOW. S OF THE E-W BOUNDARY AND E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR...BELOW
INCREASING LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE E-W
BOUNDARY AND OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD IN THE WARM SECTOR
AS WELL AS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS THE CAP WEAKENS DURING
THE DAY. A 40 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ON SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM IA EWD INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL ABOVE THE
MODEST 20-30 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY FROM NERN IA...SRN WI
AND NRN IL. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S AND SW ALONG AND E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES...UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS
WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND.


...ERN WY THROUGH WRN SD...

NELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL
REGIME OVER PARTS OF ERN WY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH ERN WY AND WRN SD WHERE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO 40 KT WLY AT 6 KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY. STORMS
MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL/JEWELL.. 08/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.