[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180107
SWODY1
SPC AC 180105

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
INL 10 SSW HIB 20 ENE BRD 30 SSW BRD 45 SW STC 15 ENE OTG 45 SSW SPW
50 W LWD 35 WSW OJC 35 NNW BVO 40 ESE P28 35 WNW P28 10 NE HLC MCK
LBF 15 SE VTN 45 WSW 9V9 15 NE PIR 10 SE MBG 60 NE MBG 20 SSE JMS 35
W FAR 30 SSW GFK 10 NNE GFK 25 S RRT 45 S INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 15 SW PHX
20 ENE PRC GCN 35 E SGU 25 ENE P38 30 SSE TPH 35 SSW BIH 25 ENE MER
50 W RNO 65 W WMC 40 SSW BOI 60 NNE BOI 20 NNE PDT 45 ESE EPH 55 NW
FCA ...CONT... MFE 40 NW NIR 10 NE TPL BWD 45 WSW SJT 15 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PLN 20 SE MBS
15 SSW JXN BEH 30 NE VOK 20 NNW LSE 50 SW LSE 30 NNE PIA 40 W LUK 35
NE BKW 45 NNW RWI 10 WNW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS...

...ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WRN MN...

EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN N
CNTRL SD NEWD THROUGH SERN ND AND INTO NRN MN. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL AND SWRN NEB.
THE WARM SECTOR S AND E OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH THE PRIMARY THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS NWD
THROUGH ERN NEB AND SERN SD. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES WHERE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD THROUGH SD. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THIS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ERN SD INTO WRN
MN. WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING EWD WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MN.
THEREFORE...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
WITH AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO MN OVERNIGHT.


...ERN NEB AND ERN KS THROUGH WRN IA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH W CNTRL NEB SWD THROUGH WRN KS. E
OF THIS FEATURE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG FROM CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL AND E
CNTRL KS. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN NEB INTO CNTRL KS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS IS
PROMOTING STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN FARTHER NWD. SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED  WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER KS
AND NEB. THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CURRENT ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM ERN
ND/NERN KS INTO WRN IA. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL.

...ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND...

FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN
MN WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH ERN MT AND SPREADING INTO WRN ND
TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL.. 08/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.