[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 172011
SWODY1
SPC AC 172009

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE
ELO 20 E HIB 35 SW HIB BRD 35 WSW STC 25 SSE RWF 20 WNW FOD P35 20
NE TOP 20 NE SLN 20 SW HUT 45 SSW P28 30 SSE LBL 55 ENE CDR 50 SE
REJ DIK DVL 35 ESE RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
CHS 35 ENE SAV 30 WNW SAV 45 S AGS 30 WSW AGS 40 ESE AHN 35 ESE AND
35 N CAE 15 SSE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E MFE 40 NW HDO 35
S SJT 70 NE P07 15 S P07 ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 15 SSE PHX 10 S PRC
30 S GCN 10 WNW GCN 40 ESE SGU 25 ENE P38 30 SSE TPH 35 SSW BIH 25
ENE MER 50 W RNO 65 W WMC 40 N OWY 60 N BOI 20 E ALW 45 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OSC 10 N LAN
FWA 30 NNW LUK 15 SW BLF 20 SE DAN 20 E ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SC...ERN GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD.  STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW -- IS
EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND EVOLVE INTO CLOSED VORTEX ALOFT OVER
CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN MT AND ID BY
END OF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL EWD EJECTION OF 
TROUGH NOW INDICATED OVER BLACK HILLS REGION.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW --
BINARY OVER W-CENTRAL ND AND WRN SD AS OF 19Z - IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT AND MOVE EWD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT PLUNGES SEWD
FROM NERN MT.  WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE ERN NC WWD
ACROSS NRN SC AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH 18/12Z.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS DAKOTAS AND NWRN MN WITH
CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING...AS APCHG NRN PLAINS TROUGH AIDS
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. REF SPC WW 27 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO OVER THIS REGION. FARTHER S...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY
MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE STRONGLY
HEATED/MIXED...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS WRN OK.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT EACH GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
SWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...WITH DISTANCE FROM BLACK
HILLS TROUGH.  ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOCUS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVC
ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA...AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SWD OVER MO VALLEY INTO NWRN MO/NERN KS.

MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY OVER NEB AND/OR
DAKOTAS...AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN SD/NERN
NEB/NWRN IA/SWRN MN AREA.

...SERN CONUS...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGION FROM SRN AR
AND MS EWD TO ERN NC/SERN NC...ALONG AN ASSORTMENT OF MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES.  PRIMARY BOUNDARY LAYER FOCI MAY BE NEAR COLD
FRONT...INVOF WHICH SEVERAL MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS ALREADY HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SC...AS WELL AS SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER SC AND OUTFLOWS
FM CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVECTION FARTHER W.  WITHIN BROADER 5%
PROBABILITY AREA...RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS SC...S OF PRESENT
ACTIVITY...AS FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH SEA BREEZE. 
INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY MOIST AND INTENSELY HEATED AT
SFC...WITH DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F YIELDING MLCAPES COMMONLY
3000-5000 J/KG IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  LOCALIZED 20-30 DEG SFC
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS INDICATE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT...DESPITE HIGH MIXING RATIOS...STILL MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
WIND POTENTIAL.  DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK OVER ENTIRE AREA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
SMALL/CONCENTRATED NATURE OF SC SUB-REGIME AND DENSITY OF POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST EVENTS...SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES AND
CATEGORICAL RISK HAVE BEEN INSERTED.

...NRN MN...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME --
PRIMARILY N OF SFC WARM FRONT OVER BOUNDARY WATERS REGION...FOR
REMAINDER AFTERNOON.  25-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPES
500-1000 J/KG SUPPORT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.

...NRN ROCKIES...
DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SPREADING EWD FROM BITTERROOTS...AHEAD OF STRONG MIDLEVEL
TROUGH IN PACIFIC NW.  A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUST AND HAIL EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.