[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171621
SWODY1
SPC AC 171620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
ELO 10 NNW HIB 45 SE BJI 55 SSW BJI 50 W AXN 50 NE ATY 25 E BKX 20
SW FRM 35 NW LWD FNB 25 N SLN 45 W HUT 40 SE DDC 20 NE LBL 15 WSW
IML 35 WNW PHP 35 WSW Y22 35 NNE DIK 75 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 15 SSE PHX
10 S PRC 30 S GCN 10 WNW GCN 40 ESE SGU 25 ENE P38 30 SSE TPH 35 SSW
BIH 25 ENE MER 50 W RNO 65 W WMC 40 N OWY 60 N BOI 20 E ALW 45 NE
63S ...CONT... 15 E MFE 40 NW HDO 35 S SJT 70 NE P07 15 S P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OSC 10 N LAN
FWA 30 NNW LUK 15 SW BLF 20 SE DAN 20 E ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER
FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHILE STRONGER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE IN STRENGTH
OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AND
INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM KS/CO INTO
MT/ND. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MAINTAINING A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGHOUT THE REGION
AND YIELDING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...ND/MN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY BY
MID AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR
MASS OCCURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS
LIKELY IN STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN.

...SD/NEB...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WY IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP WEAKEN CAP ALONG SURFACE TROUGH...LEADING TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING.  CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE UPSCALE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND CENTRAL NEB.

...KS/OK...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN KS/OK SHOW STRONG
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HOWEVER...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
WESTERN KS...AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NORTHWEST OK. 
HOWEVER...THESE RISK AREAS MAY BE UPDATED AT 20Z AS SHORT-TERM
TRENDS ARE MONITORED.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY ALONG
SW-NE ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS FROM MS-SC...AND AHEAD OF WEAK MCV OVER
EASTERN TN.  GUSTY/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.