[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171246
SWODY1
SPC AC 171244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
ELO 10 NNW HIB 45 SE BJI 55 SSW BJI 50 W AXN 50 NE ATY 25 E BKX 25
SW SPW 35 NW LWD MKC 15 WSW OJC 35 N PNC 50 N GAG 25 N LBL 15 WSW
IML 35 WNW PHP 35 WSW Y22 35 NNE DIK 75 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 SW TRM 15 NE
TRM 25 ESE EED 55 SW GCN 60 SE PGA 10 N GNT 10 E ABQ 30 E ALM 20 SW
GDP 25 ESE GDP 30 WNW HOB 25 SSW DHT 40 E LAA 35 N LAA 45 WNW ALS 45
SSE MTJ 40 WSW MTJ 25 NNE 4HV MLF 65 ESE TPH 55 E BIH 40 SSW BIH 30
NE FAT 30 NE MER 25 WNW TVL LOL 25 WNW BAM 15 NNW OWY 50 WNW TWF 40
E BOI 45 NNE BOI 70 SSE BNO 30 ESE 4LW 30 WNW LMT 60 NNE MFR 45 NE
RDM 35 WSW PDT 20 NNE EAT 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 55 NNE MQT 15 E IMT
30 NE MSN 25 N MMO 20 WNW MIE 20 SW PKB 10 SSE SSU 20 SSE ORF
...CONT... 25 SSE CRP 25 E COT 45 NW COT 25 NE DRT 55 ENE P07 20 SSW
P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS....

...KS/NEB THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EWD
OVER WRN KS/NEB IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE AXIS OVER
UT/WY. THIS LEAD WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD
INTO CENTRAL AND ERN KS/NEB BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LEAD WAVE...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND NWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FROM OK/KS TOWARD NEB.  A SHARPENING LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL KS/NEB WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEB BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UT/WY MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND ENCOUNTERS THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE INTO AN EWD/SEWD MOVING MCS BY TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS SWD FROM NEB INTO KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ ALONG
THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MOST COMMON SEVERE THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY
OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.  

...DAKOTAS/NRN MN TODAY...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...WHILE THE
STORMS ACROSS NW MN APPEAR TO BE DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA.  THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD ENEWD DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY FORM DURING THE DAY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW INVOF THE S CENTRAL
ND/N CENTRAL SD BORDER...AND ALONG THE NE-SW BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
ND THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY CLOUDS/RAINFALL THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  WEAKENING MID-UPPER FLOW/SHEAR WITH TIME
SUGGESTS THAT MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT
MODE...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL COULD OCCUR TODAY WHERE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY STRONGER ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  

...MT/SE ID THIS AFTERNOON TO WRN ND TONIGHT...
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ESEWD FROM SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA TOWARD MT/NRN ID BY TONIGHT.  MID LEVEL
ASCENT/MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO SE ID. 
THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SPREAD EWD TOWARD
ERN MT TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY WRN ND.  LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW /ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE LEAD WAVE MOVING
OVER THE PLAINS/ SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MARGINAL.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.