[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150552
SWODY1
SPC AC 150551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 30 WNW MER
55 NNW SAC 30 E RBL 35 NNW SVE 60 NW LOL 10 SW BAM 20 E SLC 45 S RKS
35 SSW RWL 40 NE RWL 35 NNE CPR 20 W GCC 15 E REJ 20 W RRT
...CONT... 10 E MQT 30 NNE EAU 20 ESE ANW 30 S SNY 15 SE LIC 35 NNW
CAO 35 NE AMA 25 SE GAG 15 NE ICT 15 W MKC 35 E IRK 25 NNW BMI 25
WNW FWA 30 ENE MGW 30 ESE CXY 15 SSE POU BOS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME IS
PROGGED TO DIG FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO
...AND INTERACTION WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COULD
LEAD TO STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS SURFACE FRONT HAS ADVANCED SOUTH
OF WESTERLIES...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY...IN WEAKLY
SHEARED...BUT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

ELSEWHERE...CLOSED LOW/TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.  FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD AGAIN CONTRIBUTE
TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/COLORADO VALLEY REGION.

...MID SOUTH/EASTERN GULF STATES...
STRONG HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN NEAR
LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...AND THIS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME
ENHANCED BY WEAK WAVE ALONG FRONT ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH...
FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  THIS IS WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
BE ENHANCED SOUTH/EAST OF LINGERING MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. 
HOWEVER...PROGGED SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20
KTS...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES.

SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST EAST OF HIGH
CENTER...FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA.  WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAYTIME HEATING...WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS
NEAR STRONGEST CELLS.

...LEE OF SRN APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SHOULD ALSO HEAT STRONGLY TODAY.  STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS
REGION SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.  EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS...WHERE FORCING MAY BE PROVIDED AS EARLY AS MID DAY BY
TAIL END OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...
EXIT REGION OF HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY.  LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER LINGERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTION PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO STRENGTH OF HEATING/MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION. 
HOWEVER...AT LEAST VERY ISOLATED HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGEST CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING...IN PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM PARTS
OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  FORCING FOR CONVECTION
IS UNCERTAIN...BUT LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...COULD
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY MAY BE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 08/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.