[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151618
SWODY1
SPC AC 151616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
ARG 25 NW POF 20 SE MDH HOP MKL 30 NNW MEM 10 WNW ARG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E MQT 25 NNW EAU
20 ESE ANW 15 SE SNY 20 NNW LIC 15 NNW CAO 10 W TCC 15 SW CVS 55 E
AMA 50 W END 20 ENE ICT 20 ESE OJC 20 WNW DEC 30 NE MIE LBE 30 ESE
CXY 20 N EWR 20 WSW BID ...CONT... 45 SSE MRY 25 NE SJC 55 NNW SAC
30 NNE RBL 60 N SVE 45 NW WMC 60 NNW ENV 15 E OGD 45 S RKS 35 SSW
RWL 40 SSW CPR 25 S SHR 35 NE SHR 40 NNE REJ 15 WSW BIS 40 NNW BIS
30 W MOT 60 NNE ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...

...MID ATLANTIC REGION TO MID MS VALLEY...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS THIS MORNING FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES.  PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES FROM VA...ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...INTO OK. 
STRENGTH OF WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.  THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. 
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NJ/VA/NC
WESTWARD INTO MO/AR.

...MO/AR/IL/KY/TN...
ONE AREA WITH AN APPARENT ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.  SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING
OVER WESTERN MO/NORTHWEST AR MAY TRACK EASTWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY
BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN AR/SOUTHEAST MO...THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN.  THIS AREA IS ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND IN REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.  MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHEAST
WY AND WESTERN SD...WHERE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.  AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG
WITH MINIMAL CAP.  WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH ALONG WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD
LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...ANY STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...CA/NV/AZ...
WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST...WITH POCKET OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PRESENT OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CA/NV MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. 
FARTHER SOUTH...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO PROMOTE A RISK
OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/GUYER.. 08/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.