[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151941
SWODY1
SPC AC 151939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW
BNA 40 WSW BNA 20 SW MKL 35 S JBR 35 SW ARG 50 W ARG 25 E UNO 40 N
POF MDH 35 W EVV 15 E EVV 20 NE OWB 40 N BWG 10 NNW BNA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MRY 25 NE SJC
55 NNW SAC 30 NNE RBL 60 N SVE 45 NW WMC 60 NNW ENV 15 E OGD 45 S
RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 SSW CPR 25 S SHR 35 NE SHR 40 NNE REJ 15 WSW BIS
40 NNW BIS 30 W MOT 60 NNE ISN ...CONT... 10 E MQT 25 NNW EAU 20 ESE
ANW 15 SE SNY 20 NNW LIC 15 NNW CAO 10 W TCC 15 SW CVS 55 E AMA 50 W
END 20 ENE ICT 20 ESE OJC 20 WNW DEC 30 NE MIE LBE 30 ESE CXY 20 N
EWR 20 WSW BID.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN
MO....SRN IL/IND...WRN KY/TN...

...LWR OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS...
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES IN VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL EWD ALONG THE OH VLY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX WERE MOVING EAST FROM SRN MO
ATTM. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WERE INCREASING
WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
WRN TN AND THE TN VLY. EXPECT SCATTERED PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WITH
MARGINAL HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS TO POSSIBLY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS/INTENSE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND SHEAR INCREASE WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE. REFER TO MCD
1987 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS AREA.

...MID ATLANTIC...
SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION AS FARTHER
WEST. HOWEVER...FORCING AND SHEAR APPEAR LIMITED SO STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE FOCUSED NEAR/OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS ALONG SEA
BREEZES AND LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. A FEW DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL STORM INTENSITY SUBSIDES AFTER SUNSET.

...DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST TO ARKLATEX TO OZARKS...
A BROAD AND EXTENSIVE SWATH OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR STRETCHES FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST WWD AND INLAND ACROSS ERN TX/OK AND AR.
NUMEROUS MARGINALLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS WERE
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL AT PRESENT APPEARS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE LWR SABINE RIVER...PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE WRN
FL PNHDL...AS WELL AS ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE ARKLATEX.

...SRN GREAT BASIN...
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OVER SRN CA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS FROM THE SRN SIERRA ACROSS
SRN NV AND NRN AZ. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A SLGT
RISK AT THIS TIME.

...SD...
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO ERN SD APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS WRN SD ATTM. HOWEVER...LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODEST
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE SPREADS
EWD AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS SCENARIO MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS
CURRENTLY DEPICTING TCU INCREASING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS GIVEN STORM INITIATION. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM
DEVELOPMENT/TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE TOO GREAT TO SUPPORT HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 08/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.