[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151245
SWODY1
SPC AC 151244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MRY 25 NE SJC
55 NNW SAC 30 E RBL 35 NNW SVE 60 NW LOL 10 SW BAM 20 E SLC 45 S RKS
35 SSW RWL 40 NE RWL 35 NNE CPR 20 W GCC 15 E REJ 20 W RRT
...CONT... 10 E MQT 30 NNE EAU 20 ESE ANW 30 S SNY 15 SE LIC 35 NNW
CAO 35 NE AMA 25 SE GAG 15 NE ICT 15 W MKC 35 E IRK 25 NNW BMI 25
WNW FWA 30 ENE MGW 30 ESE CXY 30 S POU 20 ENE HYA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE CA/SRN NV/EXTREME WRN AZ...
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SRN CA COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NWD TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASCENT N/NE OF THE LOW HAS HELPED MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SE CA...THOUGH THE TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING N THROUGH W OF
LAS...THOUGH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FROM THE S SHOULD
ALLOW STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TODAY ACROSS EXTREME SRN NV/WRN AZ
AND SE CA.  ON THE NOSE OF THIS DRY SLOT...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

...OZARKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...
A GRADUALLY WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO SAG SWD ACROSS
NRN VA/WV/KY...AND THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE FARTHER TO SW
ACROSS MO/OK.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY
INVOF THE FRONT WHERE WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED AND AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 1500-2000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
AND LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW APPEAR TO BE REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS.  ANY SEVERE STORMS TODAY SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...WITH THE
MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR A MULTICELL CLUSTER WITH A FEW DOWNBURSTS
CONFINED TO EXTREME NRN AR/SRN MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT MCV
MOVING OUT OF NE OK.

...NRN PLAINS...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE ESEWD OVER
ONTARIO WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS ND/NRN MN
BY LATER TONIGHT.  S OF THIS FRONT...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ARE RETURNING NWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO SD...THOUGH THE RICHER MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE S ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS.  STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SPREAD ENEWD
OVER THE NRN PLAINS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES.  THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION/EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN WY
ENEWD ACROSS SD...INVOF A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.  WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACH OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE /NOW OVER NW WY/ COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS COULD THE
BLACK HILLS.  THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND COULD
OCCUR...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 08/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.