[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150043
SWODY1
SPC AC 150042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
HUF BMG LUK 20 E LEX 40 SSW LEX 15 NE HOP 25 NW HOP 25 SSW EVV 30 NW
EVV 40 SSW HUF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
ACY ILG 25 SSE CXY 30 NNE CXY 15 S PSF 25 NW ORH BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ECG 25 WSW ECG
RDU CLT 35 E AHN 45 ESE MCN 15 NE SSI ...CONT... 35 S MOB 0A8 20 SSW
HSV GLH 50 E SHV 30 SW TYR TPL 35 NNE SAT 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15
WSW CZZ 25 NE RAL 20 NE FAT 40 ENE SCK 60 WNW TVL 10 SE RNO 15 SW
EKO 30 SE ENV 40 ESE SLC 10 S VEL GJT 4FC 35 ENE RWL 20 S SHR 81V
RAP AIA 10 NNE AKO LIC RTN ABQ CVS P28 10 S OJC 20 NNW CMH DUJ 45
WNW IPT 20 NNE GFL 40 ESE AUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY....

...NORTHEAST...
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. IS
BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AND WEAKENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW TURNS
EASTWARD...WELL NORTH OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...ACROSS
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.  DOWNSTREAM...STRONGER BELT OF
WESTERLIES IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. 
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF BROAD TROUGH IN
SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.

DESPITE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUING SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONGER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY
TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK/LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS BEST.  DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WIND THREAT COULD BE
MITIGATED BY COOLER MARINE AIR ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NEW YORK CITY AREA.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
WEAK IMPULSE AND BELT OF WEAK TO MODERATE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW HAVE AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  STRONG GUSTY
WINDS MAY PERSIST WITH ACTIVITY ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA.  BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF
SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS ALREADY BEEN COOLED/STABILIZED BY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS LIKELY TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY 02-03Z.

FARTHER WEST...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE ONGOING...BUT
LINGERING SHEAR AXIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE
OZARKS.

...COLORADO VALLEY...
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF MID-LEVEL LOW/UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHWEST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA.  STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
DARK...BUT...BEFORE THEY DO...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

..KERR.. 08/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.