[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141556
SWODY1
SPC AC 141554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 40
SW DCA 10 S EKN CRW LOZ BNA 10 E JBR 60 N LIT HRO TBN MVN LUK PIT
BGM GFL 10 E PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 NE RAL
20 NE FAT 40 ENE SCK 60 NW TVL 35 WNW U31 20 WSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE
VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55
SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15 ENE BZN 25 ESE RAP 60 ENE CDR 45 NNW LAA 25 W
CAO 35 NNW AMA 35 SE P28 15 NW SZL 15 NW LAF 35 E TOL ...CONT... 30
SW BUF 35 E ART 25 ENE BML 10 E BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS...

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NY/PA/MID ATLANTIC REGION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...WITH BAND OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW EXTENDING FROM WI/IL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ENHANCED BY WELL-DEFINED CLOUD EDGE/ EXTENDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES FROM SOUTHERN NH INTO
SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA.  THIS AXIS WILL LIKELY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG.  STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WILL YIELD STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELIMINATE
CAP...LEADING TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  LOW AND
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

...OH AND MID MS VALLEYS...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN OH...SOUTHERN IND...CENTRAL MO. 
REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALSO LIE SOUTH OF MAIN
FRONT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON
/MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG/.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO OH/WV.  THESE STORMS WILL BE MULTICELL
IN NATURE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
WIDESPREAD MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO
ISOLATED-SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SEVERAL WEAK
FEATURES DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL AID IN THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT.  THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS IN
STRONGER CELLS.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

..HART/GUYER.. 08/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.