[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141247
SWODY1
SPC AC 141245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
TBN 15 ENE MVN 10 SSE LUK 10 NW JKL 40 WSW LOZ BNA 10 S DYR 10 ESE
JBR 10 SSE UNO 35 SE TBN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 35
SW DCA 20 S AOO 40 ESE BFD GFL 15 ESE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IPL 40 ENE DAG
15 NNW FAT 35 NE SCK 60 W RNO 35 WNW U31 15 SSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE
VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55
SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15 ENE BZN 10 SSW RAP 25 NE AIA 45 NNW LAA 35 SSE
LAA 30 SSW GCK 20 SSW HUT 25 ENE MKC 25 NNW LAF 35 E TOL ...CONT...
30 SW BUF 35 E ART 25 ENE BML 10 E BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING
FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER
OH VALLEY....

...NRN MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NRN OH THIS MORNING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND
BY LATE EVENING.  THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF
THE STRONGER /AOA 30 KT/ MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID
70S S OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 90S...WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500
J/KG/. THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. 
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND SPREAD EWD
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG
A WEAK LEE TROUGH INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION.  THESE STORM
CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS INTO
THE EVENING.

...LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...
A SLOW MOVING SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OK NEWD
TO SRN MO AND CENTAL IL/INDIANA/OH...WHILE REMNANT PRE-FRONTAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED FARTHER SE ACROSS ERN OK AND FROM THE
MO BOOTHEEL ENEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS
EXPECTED TODAY NEAR AND SE OF THE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD AGAIN EXCEED 2000
J/KG.  A PERSISTENT BELT OF 25-30 KT WSWLY FLOW NEAR 700
MB...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 08/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.