[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140550
SWODY1
SPC AC 140548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TBN
SLO LUK JKL LOZ BNA DYR JBR 30 WSW UNO TBN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
WAL 35 NE NHK AOO PSB 10 SSE GFL 15 ESE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BUF 10 N SYR 40
E BML 10 E BHB ...CONT... 15 S IPL 40 ENE DAG 15 NNW FAT 35 NE SCK
60 W RNO 35 WNW U31 15 SSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE
RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55 SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15
ENE BZN 10 SSW RAP 25 NE AIA 45 NNW LAA 35 SSE LAA 30 SSW GCK 20 SSW
HUT 25 ENE MKC 25 NNW LAF 35 E TOL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR OHIO VALLEY....

MODELS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST...SOUTH OF ALASKAN BLOCKING HIGH CENTER...WILL WEAKEN DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS IMPULSE ROTATING
AROUND NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SWEEPS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENTS...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...IS PROGGED TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...WELL BEFORE REACHING THE U.S.
BORDER.  AS A RESULT...BROADENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH
MOST SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING EAST
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SUGGEST BROAD WEAK TROUGH...NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL SUPPRESS UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK TROUGH IN
SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

...NORTHEAST...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BY MID
DAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY PEAK HEATING.  ENHANCED
FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THIS FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY FROM SOUTHERN
NEW YORK/NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN
HOT/MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DOWNBURSTS...AND FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WEAKENING
WESTERLIES MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE WEST...ALONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND IN PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST RISE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...MODELS SUGGEST IMPULSE AND BELT OF WEAK TO
MODERATE LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ROTATE AROUND PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI
INTO KENTUCKY. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...FORCING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS BY PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING...WHEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS.  DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH
30 KT 850-700 MB SPEED MAXIMUM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SOMEWHAT BROADER
SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT PEAK WINDS ALONG GUST FRONTS LIKELY
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

...SOUTHWEST...
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES
IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR/SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY.

..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.