[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140036
SWODY1
SPC AC 140035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S
MTO 30 NW IND 40 N DAY 30 WSW ERI 25 S JHW 35 ENE PIT 15 ENE ZZV 30
SSE DAY 45 E BMG MVN 25 NE SLO 15 S MTO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW TVL TVL 65 NNW
BIH 20 ENE BIH 65 S BIH 40 NE FAT 50 S TVL 20 WSW TVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY 20 NW BWI 40 NNE
SHD ROA 20 NW SOP FLO CRE ...CONT... 25 ESE GPT LUL CBM 30 N HSV BNA
10 SE OWB 30 ESE MDH UNO FSM ADM FTW TPL 30 SE SAT 45 NW LRD
...CONT... 30 ESE IPL LAS 40 NE DRA TPH 45 SE U31 10 ENE DPG 15 ESE
EVW 25 NNW JAC 55 ESE WEY CPR 10 NW IML 45 W HLC EHA 55 S LBL P28
MHK 30 NNW UIN BEH 35 NNE MTC ...CONT... 20 WSW ART 10 NE RUT 40 SSE
AUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LWR OH VALLEY....

ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN BELT
OF WESTERLIES IS NOW ACCELERATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH
ASSOCIATED JET CORE SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.  MOST
SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS JUST NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...AND NOT LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL
STRENGTHENING OF FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING TO THE
SOUTH OF WEAKENING BELT OF CYCLONIC WESTERLIES...EMBEDDED WITHIN
MID/UPPER MOIST PLUME ADVECTING AROUND WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  QUASI-STATIONARY LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SEEMS
TO HAVE PROVIDED FOCUS FOR STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS...DESPITE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO...AT BEST...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL FLOW.

...OHIO VALLEY...
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET MAY BE
ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH/WEST OF LAKE ERIE.  THIS
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AS A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...MIGRATING AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CONTINUES
EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.  MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST BELT OF 30-40 KT 
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS ACCOMPANYING LATTER FEATURE...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPROACHING OR
BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...WITH
ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY/SHORTLY AFTER 02-03Z.

...SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S...
CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 08/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.