[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130546
SWODY1
SPC AC 130544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N JHW 35 SE UCA 15
NE PSM ...CONT... 25 ENE CRP 20 NNW VCT 40 WNW POE 20 ENE MLU 30 WNW
DYR 25 SE UNO 40 S HRO 35 SSW PGO 35 SSE SEP 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 25
SE YUM 10 SE DRA 55 SSW ELY SLC 45 N EVW 35 NNE BPI 30 SE WRL 35 SSW
PHP 45 SSW 9V9 35 W OFK 10 NE OMA 40 WSW CID 15 SSW MTC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BLOCKING PATTERN IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN...AND POLAR LOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WESTERN
EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ALREADY
DIGGING IN THE LEE OF ALASKA UPPER HIGH CENTER...IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO
NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN TODAY.  AS THIS
OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES.  SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED AND
ACCELERATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS
MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE...FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...ROTATES ACROSS QUEBEC
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
LOWER/MID-LEVELS.  AND...WITH SURFACE FRONT LIKELY TO BECOME A BIT
MORE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BELT...SEVERE EVENTS SEEM LIKELY
TO BECOME MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE...WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY MINOR IN
MAGNITUDE.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE DAY TODAY...
WITH THERMAL LOW TO THE SOUTH BECOMING LIKELY FOCUS FOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT.  SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WITH CAPE
POSSIBLY LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.  WITH STRONGER
MID-LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE SHIFTING
NORTH OF REGION...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER HODOGRAPHS
WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT...AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED
UPDRAFT ROTATION SEEMS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS...WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS TOWARD SUNSET.


...EASTERN GULF STATES...
WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE
TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AS MOIST BOUNDARY
DESTABILIZES WITH HEATING.  MODELS SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL
EXCEED 2000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE... BUT...IN WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS SEEM TO BE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT.

...LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
POCKETS OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG SLOW MOVING OR QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT.  BUT WITH FLOW
FIELDS WEAKENING...AND FORCING FOR STORM CLUSTERS UNCERTAIN...SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TODAY.

..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.