[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121629
SWODY1
SPC AC 121628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
MSS GFL 30 SSW ALB IPT 20 NNW PIT 35 N IND 25 N DNV 25 W SBN 25 WSW
JXN 10 SSW MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
GCC 40 E 81V 25 SW PHP 25 N ANW 30 WNW BBW 35 WSW LBF 40 WSW SNY 10
ENE CPR 25 WNW GCC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 WSW DRA 35 SSE
U31 55 S EKO DPG 40 SE SLC 10 NE MLD BKE 40 WSW PDT YKM 65 ENE BLI
...CONT... 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE HVR 45 N MLS DIK 15 E JMS 50 W AXN OTG
30 ENE FOD DBQ 30 ESE JVL OSC ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 45 E SHV 40 NNE
GGG 15 NE ACT 45 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

...EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES TODAY.  WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THESE STRONGER
WIND FIELDS...FROM NORTHERN IL INTO MI AND NY. THIS BOUNDARY IS
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY IN SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. 
MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN IND INTO SOUTHEAST
LOWER MI...NORTHERN OH...AND PARTS OF NY/PA.  HIGH PWAT VALUES AND
SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN ORE.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WY BY
EVENING.  STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH MODERATELY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN WY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  MODELS INDICATE THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
SD/NEB/WY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INFLOW FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...FL...
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL SHOW A VERY MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY...LEADING TO MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG.  WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MULTICELL
CONVECTION LATER TODAY.  WEAK MID LEVEL COLD TROUGH...INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS.  ISOLATED
NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT SUGGESTS ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE
WARRANTED TODAY.

..HART/GUYER.. 08/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.