[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121236
SWODY1
SPC AC 121234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
GCC 40 E 81V 25 SW PHP 25 N ANW 30 WNW BBW 35 WSW LBF 40 WSW SNY 10
ENE CPR 25 WNW GCC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
MSS GFL 30 SSW ALB IPT 20 NNW PIT 35 N IND 25 N DNV CGX MBS 50 ESE
OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE HVR
45 N MLS DIK FAR AXN MKT DBQ HTL 35 E OSC ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 50 W
MLU GGG AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 S CZZ DRA 45 ESE U31 55 S EKO
DPG 40 SE SLC 10 NE MLD BKE 40 WSW PDT YKM 65 E BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING FOR ERN WY/WRN NEB/SW SD....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FOR SE LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA TO WRN NY....

...WRN AND NRN NY/PA TO NRN INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL
MOVE EWD FROM MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO TO WRN QUEBEC BY LATE TONIGHT. 
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM WI TO LOWER MI
THIS AFTERNOON...TO NRN INDIANA/NRN OH AND WRN NY BY EARLY TONIGHT. 
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS LOWER MI EARLY TODAY...AND NWD ACROSS NRN PA/NY/SRN NEW
ENGLAND.  THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. 

DESPITE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM OVER THE REGION...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 60-LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT
IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500 J/KG.  30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG
THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER BELT OF FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT/ AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS
SUPERCELLS IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT.  GIVEN THE RATHER POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT.

...WRN NEB/SW SD/ERN WY THROUGH LATE EVENING...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ESEWD TO WY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SMALLER SCALE WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL WY
MOVES EWD THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THE APPROACHING WA/ORE MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL DEVELOP
SWD ACROSS MT INTO NE WY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  EXPECT THE SECONDARY FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN
WY INTO WRN/NRN NEB AND SRN SD.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 55-60 F ARE PRESENT N OF AN
INITIAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NE NM INTO CENTRAL KS.  CLOUDS AND A
RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO CONFINE THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO THE NEB PANHANDLE/ERN WY AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...NEAR THE NE EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS SAME AREA WILL ALSO RESIDE BENEATH 30-40 KT
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...STORMS WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 08/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.