[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 112007
SWODY1
SPC AC 112005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
LUK 35 WSW P35 15 NE MHK 30 SSE HSI 30 E SUX 50 SSE RST 20 NNE JVL
30 SW TOL 35 E DAY 30 SSW LUK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MSS 30 SSE SLK
35 ESE UCA 15 S ELM 30 NW POU MWN 30 S HUL ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 55 S
LFK AUS 35 NNE HDO 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE
BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 35 ENE U31 60 SE EKO 35 NW EVW 20 SSW IDA
BTM 30 SSE S06 30 ENE GEG 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 W HVR
65 WSW GGW 25 WSW GDV 40 NW DIK 40 NW P24 60 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CNU 30 ESE ICT
50 W CSM 30 ESE CVS 50 S LBB 10 SW LTS 40 SSE OKC 55 ENE TUL 30 W
JEF SZL 35 NE CNU.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OH WW INTO THE MIDDLE
MO VALLEY...

...MIDDLE OH VALLEY WWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM E CENTRAL
INDIANA WWD INTO ERN NEB -- ALONG COMBINATION WARM FRONT /
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW S OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AREA OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION.  STRONGEST STORMS ATTM EXIST OVER CENTRAL AND
ERN INDIANA...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SUGGEST
MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS
THIS REGION AFTER SUNSET.  

STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ERN NEB / WRN IA AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT / INVOF WEAK UPPER
VORT MAX MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THIS AREA.  THOUGH INSTABILITY IS
SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY
SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.  EXPECT THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL TO EVOLVE...AND SHIFT EWD TOWARD NRN IL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS ERN WY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLACK HILLS -- AND
FURTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY / THE CO FRONT RANGE --
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW 
DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FROM ROUGHLY
NERN CO / NWRN KS NWD TO SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG / SEVERE STORMS /
STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM SERN ME
SWD INTO ERN MA...WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG SEA-BREEZE
BOUNDARY...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  WITH
MID-LEVEL FLOW 30 TO 40 KT...ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS MAY
EVOLVE..CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS OR
MARGINAL HAIL. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH EVENING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES AND SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION WEAKENS.

..GOSS.. 08/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.