[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111621
SWODY1
SPC AC 111620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
DEC 10 SSE P35 20 N MHK 30 SSE HSI 30 E SUX 25 SSW VOK 30 SSE OSH 35
SSE MKE 10 N DNV 20 SW DEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ERI 35 ENE BFD
45 SE UCA 10 SE BML 15 S HUL ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 55 S LFK AUS 35
NNE HDO 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE BIH 15 NNW
TPH 15 S U31 35 ENE U31 60 SE EKO 35 NW EVW 20 SSW IDA BTM 30 SSE
S06 30 ENE GEG 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 W HVR 65 WSW GGW
25 WSW GDV 40 NW DIK 40 NW P24 60 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CNU 30 ESE ICT
50 W CSM 30 ESE CVS 50 S LBB 10 SW LTS 40 SSE OKC 55 ENE TUL 30 W
JEF SZL 35 NE CNU.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN HALF OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS...
SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COMPLEX OVER THIS REGION TODAY...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW LIKELY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN WI
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD
INTO WRN IA/SERN NEB/KS.  PLACEMENT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
MORE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN LATER TODAY...AS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL COMBAT PRESSURE FALLS AND ANY ASSOCIATED NWD PUSH
TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD LIFT TOWARDS SRN WI BY THIS EVENING. 
THOUGH WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST /I.E. SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F /... MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK. REGARDLESS...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT VERY UNSTABLE SBCAPE FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO
ERN IA/CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STEEP.

A PAIR OF WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA WERE LIFTING ENEWD THIS
MORNING...ONE OVER ERN IA AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NEB.  THE LATTER
SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO SERN NEB AND
MUCH OF IA THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MODEST ACROSS STRONGER INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES/MULTICELL
CLUSTERS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE MID EVENING
INTO PORTIONS OF SRN WI/IL.  OTHER STORMS WILL INCREASE SWWD AS
STRONG HEATING OVERCOMES CAPPING ALONG FRONT INTO KS...AND INVOF
WEAK CAP AND STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH
AWAY FROM MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HAVE ADJUSTED CATEGORICAL AND
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.

...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
AFTER DARK...STRONG SWLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND DEVELOP INTO
ONE OR MORE MCSS LATER THIS EVENING.  THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE...RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED NATURE TO THE STORMS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED.  EXPECT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT INTO
THIS REGION...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN WY...
NARROW AXIS OF 50+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME NEAR AND JUST
BEHIND STALLING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
SUSTAIN 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  THEREFORE...AS STORMS
INCREASE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY THEY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO
CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAIN A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND AS THEY MOVE SEWD OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THRU THE
EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ASCENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN/NRN MN TODAY. 
DESPITE THE INCREASED SHEAR AND DEEP ASCENT...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN RATHER COOL/STABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN WAKE OF EARLIER
SURFACE COLD FRONT.  EXPECT AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...HOWEVER...AND WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER CELLS.  SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED...MUCH AS WHAT OCCURRED INTO NERN MT
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WIND SHIFT/COOL FRONT.  THEREFORE...ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS WITH EXPECTED
SEVERE THREAT REMAINING LIMITED.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 08/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.