[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120036
SWODY1
SPC AC 120035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
LUK BMG CMI BRL 20 NNW LWD 40 WNW DSM 10 NW ALO MSN 15 NW MKE 20 NE
CGX SBN FWA DAY 30 NW LUK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG
35 SE BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 40 NE U31 ELY BYI 40 NNW PIH DLN 35 W
MSO 63S EAT 70 NE SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NW CTB MLS 60 NW REJ
Y22 BIS DVL 75 NE DVL ...CONT... 10 SSW ART 10 S UCA MSV 25 S ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL PSK LEX MVN BLV
STL 45 NE COU MKC 10 NNE EMP 40 E TCC CNM FST 25 SSW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 30 E CLL
GGG ELD 35 N LIT ARG DYR MKL HSV RMG AND SOP 10 S HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE MID
MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION....

SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND
PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.  CONVECTION MOST OTHER AREAS APPEARS LARGELY IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
WITH NIGHTFALL.

...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES...
WHILE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME SHEARED
AND ALREADY ACCELERATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS
FEATURE...WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS IOWA IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT.  DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS...BUT AT LEAST SOME
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW.  THIS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING FOR
GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT EAST OF LOW...
FROM PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO
METROPOLITAN AREAS THIS EVENING.

MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN WARM SECTOR SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW
REGIME.  THIS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...AT LEAST THIS EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...BUT LOSS OF WARM SECTOR HEATING IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE
RISK CONTINUING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

...N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THRU MID MO VALLEY...
WHILE BETTER MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AHEAD OF
FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN WARM/MOIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. 
MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THIS
EVENING...BUT THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AS
LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING STEADILY STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER.

..KERR.. 08/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.