[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111257
SWODY1
SPC AC 111255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
MHK GRI FOD 35 NNE MSN 15 NNE TVC 20 NE OSC 30 NE MTC TOL 35 NNW FWA
25 WNW MIE 35 E LUK 20 WSW LEX 30 NE MVN 45 S UIN 30 SSW P35 20 N
MHK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 SSW PMD 35 ENE
FAT 50 W TPH 45 WNW ELY DPG 25 SSE MLD 40 SSW WEY 55 S S06 20 NNW
PUW 30 NNE EPH 70 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BUF 20 SE BFD
15 SW PSB 30 E IPT 15 ESE GFL BML 20 NNE 3B1 30 NW CAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N JLN 45 ENE ICT
40 WNW PNC 45 NNW CDS 50 SSW CDS 45 NW MWL 15 ESE FTW 25 WNW TYR 20
N HRO 45 N JLN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR OH
VLYS AND LWR MI...

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
STRONG SPEED MAX NOW DROPPING S ACROSS ALBERTA EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND SUPPRESS THE WLYS
FARTHER S INTO THE NRN TIER OF STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...
DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE OVER QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND
AND DRIVE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN NEW ENG AND THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

FARTHER S...SATELLITE DATA SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN MORE SRN
BRANCH OF FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION E/NE TO
THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY.  IN ADDITION...ANIMATED RADAR DATA DEPICT A
POSSIBLE MCV MOVING E ACROSS N CNTRL KS.

...LWR MO/MID MS VLYS INTO IL/IND/SW OH THIS AFTERNOON...
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM NE
KS/NRN MO/SRN IA E/SE INTO CNTRL IL/IND TODAY...WHERE 25-30 KT WSW
FLOW WILL EXIST AT MID LEVELS. WEAK FRONT STALLED W/E ACROSS REGION
LIKELY WILL SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS IN WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED/MODULATED BY MCV NOW
OVER NRN KS. COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST...LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO
CLUSTERS...WITH HIGH PWS POSSIBLY ENHANCING THREAT FOR WET
MICROBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET.

...MID MS VLY INTO LWR MI TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM/SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MID MS
VLY INTO LWR MI TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS AMPLIFICATION OF NRN
STREAM JET RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE WRN GRT LKS.  BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS.  A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE
SHOULD BE ELEVATED CLUSTERS.  WITH BOUNDARY LAYER OVER REGION STILL
UNDERGOING WEAK COOL ADVECTION ATTM...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  BUT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH STRONGER
STORMS.

...CNTRL/ERN DAKS AND NW MN...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE WRN DAKOTAS MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY OVER NW MN TONIGHT.  POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED
BY MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND POSSIBLY BY UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE NOW IN MT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS FROM PRESENT CONVECTION
LIKELY WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.  ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND.

...ERN WY/WRN NEB...
SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER ERN WY
AND PERHAPS WRN NEB...INVOF SAME FRONT AFFECTING THE DAKOTAS.  THIS
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY APPARENT SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW IN UT.
 ALTHOUGH STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS...CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
WEAK.  THIS SHOULD MITIGATE STORM COVERAGE AND DEGREE OF SEVERE
THREAT.

..SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATL REGION...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS REGION...AND LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TO LONG ISLAND MAY SERVE AS
FOCI FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS TODAY.  BOTH UPR LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. BUT MODEST...LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...AND RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...MAY YIELD A FEW
CELLS WITH WET DOWNBURSTS.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR/COHEN.. 08/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.