[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110556
SWODY1
SPC AC 110555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
CNK GRI FOD VOK 35 SSW OSC MTC TOL 35 W FWA LAF CMI 30 NW SPI 20 S
BRL P35 25 NW CNK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 35 N RAL 50 S BIH
25 WNW TPH 20 SSE ELY 45 NW PUC 20 WNW JAC 30 E 27U 55 S S06 20 NNW
PUW 30 NNE EPH 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE ERI 20 S YNG 15 ESE MGW
25 NE HGR 15 ESE GFL 15 ESE BML 20 NNE 3B1 30 NW CAR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE MID MO
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES....

MODELS INDICATE BLOCK WILL PERSIST IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC/ALASKA/BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND.  NORTHERN BRANCH OF FLOW SPLITTING AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN MOST PROMINENT...WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS...INCLUDING ONE WHICH HAS PROGRESSED AROUND CREST OF
UPPER RIDGE.  THIS IMPULSE IS ALREADY AMPLIFYING IN THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.

MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DOWNSTREAM...IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF POLAR VORTEX...IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  HOWEVER...QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE IN ITS WAKE...FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
STATES...IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME RATHER
NUMEROUS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT NEAR SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND IN MONSOONAL MOIST PLUME ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH/WEST OF REGION...BUT LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE IN WEAKER
SOUTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY/TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEVELOPMENT OF WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS
BECOME STALLED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY BY/
SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING FROM PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED.

BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS.  ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ONE OR MORE SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS SEEM LIKELY TO EVOLVE WITH ASSOCIATED BROADER SCALE WIND
THREAT.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT AFTER
DARK...BUT ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO BEFORE WEAKENING.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME.  MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK HEATING...BUT FORCING FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

OTHER STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR OR SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...FROM
PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...PERHAPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE.  THOUGH STRONG
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL...MODELS SUGGEST ONLY WEAK TO
MODERATE CAPE. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONCERNS REGARDING
STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SEEM LIKELY TO MINIMIZE EXTENT
OF SEVERE THREAT.

...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
LACK OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE EXTENT
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT
FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  FLOW FIELDS WILL ALSO GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK. 
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE APPROACHED IN PEAK HEATING...AND LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED/BRIEF DOWNBURST OR
TWO.

..KERR/TAYLOR.. 08/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.