[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110059
SWODY1
SPC AC 110057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
CNK 35 NNW HLC 35 NNW GLD 15 ENE AKO 10 NNW SNY 50 WNW BFF 15 SE CPR
35 E RIW 25 N RIW 50 S SHR 40 ENE SHR 35 SSE MLS 60 SSE GDV 15 E SDY
35 W P24 25 N Y22 40 E Y22 45 NNW PHP 40 SSW RAP 30 E CDR 15 SSW ANW
30 S YKN 60 SW FOD 35 NE FNB 35 NW CNK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BHB LCI 15 NE AVP HGR
SHD TRI 30 WNW BWG 30 NE JBR 30 SE UMN 40 NNE CNU 20 SSE SLN 35 WSW
RSL 25 W GCK 45 NE CVS 40 WSW LBB 55 S CDS 40 W MKO 15 ENE LIT 50
NNW MSL 25 ENE RMG 50 S PSK 50 ENE DAN 10 ENE RIC 10 S WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW RRT BJI 15 SSE
AXN 10 SE FRM CID 15 S RFD 30 W BEH AZO 25 NNW MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 35 S LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W TRM 10 NNW
DAG 10 SE NID BIH U31 60 N ELY BYI 45 WSW 27U 45 SSW MSO 30 S S06 40
SW 63S 50 NNW EAT 25 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS....

NOTABLE DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
MOST AREAS.  WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND COMMENCEMENT OF DIURNAL COOLING WEST OF THE ROCKIES
...THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS.

...CENTRAL STATES...
PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY
MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY...DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...IN MORE PROMINENT BELT OF WESTERLIES EAST OF NORTHEAST
PACIFIC UPPER BLOCK.  IN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.  MODELS SUGGEST
THIS IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...AS NORTHERN SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.

BROAD LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE MOST PROMINENT FORCING FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASINGLY
BECOME BASED ABOVE RADIATIONAL INVERSION EAST OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND ABOVE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.

WITH MODERATELY STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE SHEAR...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG WILL PROVIDE CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. 
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS...THOUGH...SEEMS TO BE NEAR/JUST NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WHERE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

**FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOCALE DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 08/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.