[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 102011
SWODY1
SPC AC 102009

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
GRI 20 NE IML 40 SE CYS 45 SSE CPR 20 SSE LND 20 NNE JAC 15 SE GTF
50 N LWT 70 S GGW 55 SSE Y22 HON 15 E FSD 25 E SUX 40 NW OMA 20 W
GRI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W TRM 10 NNW
DAG 35 E FAT 20 W BIH 50 SSW ELY 45 SW DPG 40 ENE OWY 75 N BOI 15 S
S80 30 S S06 40 SW 63S 50 NNW EAT 25 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 35 S LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CDS 40 S OKC
35 W MKO 30 W JLN 40 NE CNU 20 SSE SLN 40 WSW RSL 25 WNW GCK 10 SE
EHA 30 SSE DHT 40 NE CVS 40 SW LBB 55 SSE CDS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 35 NE FAR
25 W AXN 25 W MKT 25 NNE ALO 15 S RFD 30 W BEH 35 NW LAN 20 N OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO
SD / NEB...

...NRN ROCKIES / NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SD / NEB...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN ID / SWRN MT /
WY INVOF WEAK UPPER VORT MAX...AND ALSO EWD ACROSS SWRN SD AND MUCH
OF NEB INVOF WEAK / NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.  MODERATE INSTABILITY
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH
MODERATE / 30 TO 40 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SHEAR /
INSTABILITY COMBINATION SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS. 
THOUGH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS SWRN SD / THE NEB
PANHANDLE WITH TIME...AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING LIKELY RESULTING IN GREATER
COVERAGE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...JET SHOULD VEER WITH
TIME...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN EWD-MOVING / POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS
ACROSS NEB -- WHICH COULD REACH THE MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 

...WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION / OH VALLEY. 
THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
AREA...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PULSE / SOME MULTICELL
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / BRIEFLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...BUT STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OFFSET INCREASE IN
WIND FIELD THUS MAINTAINING ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 08/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.