[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100558
SWODY1
SPC AC 100556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
LBF 15 W AIA 30 E DGW 30 WSW GCC 30 SW 4BQ 40 ENE 4BQ 65 N PHP 15 W
HON 25 ESE FSD 35 NNE SUX 10 SW SUX 40 WSW OFK 40 NNE LBF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LTS 30 S OKC MKO
15 WSW SGF 15 SSE SZL 25 NE MKC 15 NNW SLN 30 E LBL 30 E DHT 40 ESE
PVW 25 S LTS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW CMX 60 S DLH
35 WSW EAU 25 SW MKE 30 NE MKG 80 NE APN ...CONT... 35 S CRP 35 S
LRD ...CONT... SAN 20 WNW PMD 20 NW FAT 45 NE SAC 30 SE SVE 45 NW
WMC OWY 40 ESE BOI 20 SSW S80 35 WSW PUW 30 N EAT 55 E BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION
WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS ERN MT
AND ERN WY....WITH STORMS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
OTHER STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S F IN THE HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE MTNS. THE
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...SPREADING ESEWD
INTO GREATER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT
DIFFERENCES SUGGESTING THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN BY THE NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IF THE STORMS
REMAIN DISCRETE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE
EXPANDING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WCNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL SD. VERY STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT DEVELOPING AN MCS AND MOVING A
LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB. IF
THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED
OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MARGINAL AND CONCENTRATED
AROUND PEAK HEATING.

...NEW ENGLAND...
A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN UNITED STATES WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS INTRODUCE
UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING THE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND. IF SCATTERED STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN
QUEBEC AND DRIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE FRONT...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A SEVERE THREAT OVER ME..VT...NH AND
NRN NY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES BELOW
30 KT WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. DUE TO THE
STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE
SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...OH VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY
INTO THE NERN US. AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER LARGE-ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NRN OH WWD
INTO CNTRL IL COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM
AND GFS SOLUTIONS AGREE DRIVING A CONVECTIVE LINE SWD ACROSS
IL...IND AND OH. IF THIS OCCURS...A RAPID WEAKENING WOULD BE LIKELY
AS THE LINE MOVES INTO KY AND WV DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE
TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHEAR FARTHER SOUTH.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.