[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100053
SWODY1
SPC AC 100051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE
OSC 30 SE MLI 20 SSE MHK 25 WSW DDC 45 SE LAA 15 ESE LAA 45 NNE LAA
20 W GLD 35 W MCK 25 SSE SUX 25 NE VOK 35 SE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BPT 15 W PRX
20 SW OKC 35 W CSM 10 SSE PVW 55 NW BGS 30 S BGS 25 E SJT 40 E JCT
15 SSE HDO 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 S LGB 25 WNW BIH 25 NNW BAM 80
SSE S80 65 NW FCA ...CONT... 40 NE HVR 70 SSW GGW 60 SW DIK 35 ESE
MBG 45 SSW AXN 55 SW IWD 70 NW ANJ ...CONT... 55 NNE CLE 20 W MTO
TBN 40 S HRO HOT 40 SW PBF 30 NNW GLH 25 N UOX 25 E BNA BKW 40 SW
DCA 20 ENE SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST...

...UPPER MIDWEST...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING EXTENDING
FROM NRN MI WSWWD ACROSS WI INTO IA. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR A
COLD FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE STORMS ARE NEAR 70 F AND
MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED
 MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LINE STRONG FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. SFC WINDS ARE VEERED AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH WILL
LIKELY ENHANCED THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS NRN
MI...SE WI AND ERN IA. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STEEP...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE LINE OUTRUNS THE STRONGER INSTABILITY.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NE NEB
EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN CO. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A COLD
FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S F AHEAD OF THE LINE. AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
PROFILERS SHOWING ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS HOWEVER MOST
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LINEAR IN STRUCTURE. SUPERCELLS AND
THE STRONGER MULTICELLS SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TO 500
MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM. HOWEVER...AS THE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY
DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

...SRN MT/NRN WY...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM WCNTRL MT SEWD INTO
ECNTRL WY. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 50S F WHICH
COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IS HELPING CREATE MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. DUE TO
HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE HIGH BASES. THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT
SHOWN ON VAD WIND PROFILERS SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY
WITH PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 08/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.