[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091957
SWODY1
SPC AC 091955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E
OSC 10 ESE MTW 10 NNE DBQ 25 W DSM 25 SE OLU BUB 35 E ANW 20 SSE MHE
20 NW RWF 65 SSW DLH 35 W CMX 60 NW ANJ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
CPR 25 ESE COD 20 ENE HLN 45 NW GTF 60 ESE CTB 40 SSE HVR 50 NE 4BQ
40 SSE REJ 45 SSW RAP 45 ENE DGW 25 N CPR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CNK 40 NE DDC 25
ENE LBL 65 WSW GAG 55 NNW CDS 30 WSW LTS 15 WNW MLC 15 WNW JLN 30 W
SZL 40 ENE MKC 15 NE STJ 20 W CNK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW DVL 20 WSW DVL
40 ENE BIS 15 N MBG 35 SE MBG 25 W HON 15 SSE BRD 50 WNW IWD
...CONT... 35 SE DTW 35 WSW FDY 25 SSE IND 35 SSW SDF 25 SSW LEX 30
W HTS 20 E UNI 20 NE YNG 25 WSW BUF ...CONT... 65 N BRO 20 S LRD
...CONT... 10 ESE SAN 25 NW EDW 40 SSE FAT 40 S TVL 30 SSW NFL 60
SSW RDM 45 NNW BNO 35 E S80 10 SSE S06 35 SW 63S 65 ESE BLI 50 ENE
BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...
PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE ACTIVE BOW ECHO NOW
EXITING NRN UP OF MI WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI/SWRN MN TO SWRN NEB.
40KT BAND OF 500MB FLOW EXTENDS FROM MT EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO WRN
GREAT LAKES.  THUS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN
FRINGE OF THIS FLOW...RESULTING IN ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR
IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

HOWEVER GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND POOLED VERY MOIST AIR
MASS... INSTABILITIES ARE IN PLACE FROM ERN NEB TO WI FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF CONSIDERABLE STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. CAP HAS ERODED SUFFICIENTLY IN NERN NEB
NEWD INTO WRN WI FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS. 
STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD VICINITY BOUNDARY REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 3000 J/KG IN AREA OF POOLED
70F DEWPOINTS S OF BOUNDARY IN SRN MN/IA...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS IS GREATEST.  UPWARDS OF
30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF INITIALLY
MULTICELLED STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS THIS EVENING AS COLD POOL IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK THIS AREA...HOWEVER PARAMETERS SUGGEST
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MULTICELLULAR AND RATHER ISOLATED.  WEAK
UPSLOPE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD. WITH
DEWPOINT IN THE 50S AND CONTINUED STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT/NRN WY EWD.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40 KT AND
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. 
STORMS WILL MOVE EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST
WIND THREAT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
A VERY MOIST MONSOON AIR MASS COVERS SWRN U.S. A COLD POOL HAS
DEVELOP OVER SRN NV AND IS PROPAGATING SWD INTO SERN CA AND WRN AZ. 
WITH MUCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE WITH LEADING EDGE
OF COLD POOL.

..HALES.. 08/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.