[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 082006
SWODY1
SPC AC 082004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
IWD 50 NNW EAU 45 NE ATY 40 S MBG 40 NE RAP 45 ENE 81V 25 NNE 4BQ 30
W GDV 15 N SDY 15 NNW MOT 40 WNW GFK 30 NNE BJI 30 WSW ELO 55 SE ELO
40 WNW IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 20 NNW RAL
40 ESE FAT 40 E SAC 10 S RBL 40 S 4LW 45 W BKE 75 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW OTM 25 SW PIA
15 ESE MMO 30 NNE CGX 40 ENE MKE 30 ENE MSN 35 W LNR 20 S FRM 15 SSW
MHE 50 WNW VTN 20 W AIA 30 ENE DEN 35 SW PUB TAD 10 W LAA 10 ENE GLD
35 WNW CNK 10 SSW OMA 25 NNW OTM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD
INTO MT...

...UPPER MS VALLEY WWD INTO MT...
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP /
INCREASE ACROSS MT THIS AFTERNOON...AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS ID / WRN
MT.  WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE ATTM...EXPECT A FEW ORGANIZED /
ROTATING STORMS TO DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.  

LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP / SPREAD EWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS...FUELED BY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION ABOVE
SURFACE FRONT NOW LYING FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL AND WRN SD. 
THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING
STORMS...MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THEREFORE...EXPECT MAIN SEVERE
THREAT TO BE HAIL...WITH EVENTUAL MCS DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AS STORMS
SHIFT EWD ACROSS ND / NRN SD INTO MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 08/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.