[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081614
SWODY1
SPC AC 081612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
IWD 55 NNW EAU 45 NE ATY 40 SSW MBG 35 NNE RAP 45 ENE 81V 25 NNE 4BQ
25 WSW GDV 15 N SDY MOT 25 ESE TVF 20 WSW ELO 25 NW IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S RAL 25 SSE PMD
BFL 20 NE MER 55 SSW SVE 40 S 4LW 45 W BKE 75 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW IRK 35 WNW SPI
20 WSW BEH 25 NNE BEH MKG 30 ENE MSN 30 WNW LNR 20 S FRM 15 SSW MHE
45 S PHP 45 WNW BFF 30 ENE DEN 35 SW PUB TAD 35 N CAO 45 WNW EHA 10
ENE GLD 35 WNW CNK 15 SE FNB 35 SSW IRK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...
ONGOING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING.  SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING IMPULSE NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIKELY LIFT NNEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY.  TRAILING
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SERN ND WSWWD INTO NWRN SD/SERN
MT WHERE ANOTHER LOW CENTER SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON.  

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS INVOF LOW CENTER BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...AHEAD OF NEXT
IMPULSE NOW LIFTING INTO SWRN MT ACCORDING TO WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING.  AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE HOT WITHIN WARM SECTOR OVER
MUCH OF WRN SD WITH SURFACE TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
100F...WITH NARROW MOIST AXIS PERSISTING NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT INTO SWRN ND/FAR SERN MT.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE MT/SD/ND BORDER REGION AND SPREAD EWD. 
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE EVOLUTION
INTO A BOW ECHO MCS GIVEN STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ENHANCED INFLOW NEAR THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING.  PRIMARY
QUESTIONS FOR THIS SCENARIO ARE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
/WILL SYSTEM BE ABLE TO ACT ON WEAK CINH NEAR PEAKING HEATING?/. 
REGARDLESS...ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. 
OTHER STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM NRN SD/ND EWD INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY WITHIN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS STORMS
BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.