[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080531
SWODY1
SPC AC 080529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 45
NW TVC 15 NE GRB 35 NNW VOK 20 NNE BKX 65 N PHP 30 SW Y22 25 SSE DIK
45 ENE DIK 55 WNW JMS 20 SSE BJI 15 SSE HIB 40 SE ELO 60 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 20 SSE RAL
20 ESE BFL 45 W BIH 20 WNW RNO 60 NNW SVE 45 SW BNO 55 S S80 20 N
MSO 55 NW FCA ...CONT... 25 N PBG 15 E PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE GCK 10 E MHK
30 W SZL 45 SSW IRK 35 SE DSM 20 ESE FOD 15 S SPW 15 SW FSD 55 S PHP
35 SW BFF 25 NW DEN 45 NNE ALS 20 SSE TAD 40 NNE CAO 50 NNE GCK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
NRN PLAINS...

...UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS...
THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT SWD INTO THE NCNTRL UNITED
STATES TODAY BRINGING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION.
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORM INITIATION SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
FROM CNTRL MN EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NRN SD INTO NE WY AND SE MT. THE
AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS
CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED WITH THE NAM AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING NUMEROUS
STORMS. HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN OVER-DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THIS MAY INDEED BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. AT
ANY RATE...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET EXPANDS NEAR A SFC LOW ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN
WY ACROSS NRN SD INTO SCNTRL MN. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 50 KT OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS MN AND
WI...SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHEAR WOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE MULTICELL
THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES AND ON WHETHER A EWD MOVING TROUGH PHASES WELL
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

...FL...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS FL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED STORMS INITIATING BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOVE 70 F. THIS
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS CELLS PEAK IN INTENSITY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON.
ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF AND CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK
HEATING.

...SRN CA/SW AZ...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOVE WWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD PROMOTE A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS IS OVERTURNED BY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION.

..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 08/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.