[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080059
SWODY1
SPC AC 080058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
FRM 35 NNW RWF AXN 35 WNW BRD 30 NE BRD 35 WNW IWD 30 NNW RHI 25 SW
RHI 15 NNW LSE 30 WSW RST 30 NNW FRM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ RAL 25 N BFL
30 ENE MER 15 SSW TVL 20 NW LOL 65 WNW WMC 20 SE 4LW 65 WSW BNO 60
SSW PDT 40 SSW LWS 10 SW MSO 20 WNW LWT 30 SE SDY 40 E MOT 60 NNW
DVL ...CONT... 20 WNW ANJ 55 ENE GRB 30 NNW DBQ 25 W CID 45 ENE MKC
55 SW SZL 25 E FYV 25 N HOT 15 NNW LIT 55 SW ARG 20 E TBN 45 ENE JEF
30 SW PIA 20 SW BEH 15 SSW LAN 20 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 20 W
SYR 30 WNW ALB 30 ENE PSF 20 ENE BDL 35 E ISP ...CONT... 20 SSW WAL
25 NW RIC 25 S LYH 30 S GSO 10 N FLO CRE ...CONT... 10 ESE PNS 20
WSW MGM 10 ESE GAD 25 ENE CHA 15 SSW TRI 25 SSE 5I3 JKL 40 S LEX 25
SE BWG 50 SSW BNA 30 NNE MEI 20 W BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW TAD 35 ENE TAD
20 SSW LAA 35 NNE LAA 25 SE AIA 25 NW AIA 30 NNW BFF 25 WNW FCL 40
SSW 4FC 50 N ALS 40 WNW TAD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN WI ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WSWWD ACROSS NCNTRL MN. DEVELOPING
CUMULUS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LOCATED NW OF
MINNEAPOLIS AND THIS AREA SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
INITIATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN INTO NW
WI. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT. THE
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0
C/KM SUGGEST SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY IF STORMS
CAN INITIATE. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...SRN CA/SW AZ...
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SWRN AZ. THE STORMS WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE WWD INTO SRN CA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION PARTIALLY DUE
TO SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGESTS STRONG
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 08/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.