[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071931
SWODY1
SPC AC 071930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
AXN 45 WNW BRD 30 NNE BRD 50 ESE DLH 40 NW RHI 45 ESE EAU 20 SSE MKT
35 ENE BKX 45 WSW AXN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ RAL 35 NE
SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 35 N FAT 45 SW SVE 10 SSE MHS 35 NNW LMT 45
ESE ALW 10 WSW MSO 25 WNW LWT 40 WNW GDV 60 N ISN ...CONT... 25 W
ANJ 35 W JVL 35 NNW OTM 60 NE OMA 35 ESE OMA 30 ESE IRK 35 ESE UIN
10 NNE CGX 10 SW GRR 20 NNE LAN 30 E FNT 10 ENE MTC 25 ENE TOL 20 W
CLE 20 ENE CLE 30 ESE BUF 15 NNW UCA 10 NW BAF 25 SSW GON.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY...

...UPPER MS VLY...
18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER NERN SD WITH A FRONT NEWD ACROSS
CNTRL MN.  S OF THE FRONT...AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE OWING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HEATING.  TAMDAR SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM CAPPED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DAKS AND CNTRL/SRN MN /S OF
FRONT/.  BUT...ENHANCED SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF SURFACE
LOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ACCAS/ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NCNTRL MN
EARLY THIS AFTN.  GIVEN APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE DAKS...LARGE SCALE WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING BANDS
OF CONVECTION FROM CNTRL/NRN MN TOWARD UPPER MI THROUGH EVE.  A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN THIS CORRIDOR.  

THERE REMAINS A SUFFICIENT THREAT FOR TSTMS TO ROOT INTO THE VERY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER YET THIS AFTN/EVE TO MAINTAIN A SLGT
CATEGORICAL RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN MN AND NWRN WI. 
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...BUT SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY VALUES IN
PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN SURFACE-BASED INITIATION.  

...LWR OH VLY...
WEAK UPPER SHEAR AXIS...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE SUPPORTING STRONG TSTMS ALONG/N OF THE OH RVR
THIS AFTN.  ISOLD STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. 
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE.

...BLACK HILLS VCNTY...
WDLY SCT TSTMS HAVE FORMED VCNTY BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN...ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING EWD THROUGH MT/DAKS. THE FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN REMAINS WEAK...BUT GIVEN SUCH HOT BOUNDARY
LAYER...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVE.

..RACY.. 08/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.