[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071556
SWODY1
SPC AC 071554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
MCW 15 SW SPW 25 E BKX 30 NW STC 25 SE DLH 30 WNW RHI 40 NNW VOK 35
ENE MCW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
WAL 20 SSE NHK 15 N NHK 20 NE BWI 15 NNW PHL 10 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ RAL 35 NE
SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 35 N FAT 45 SW SVE 10 SSE MHS 35 NNW LMT 45
ESE ALW 10 WSW MSO 25 WNW LWT 40 WNW GDV 60 N ISN ...CONT... 25 W
ANJ 35 W JVL 35 NNW OTM 30 E OFK 35 ESE BUB 20 SW HSI 25 SW MHK 40 S
OJC 45 WSW JEF 35 ESE UIN 10 NNE CGX 10 SW GRR 20 NNE LAN 30 E FNT
10 ENE MTC 25 ENE TOL 20 W CLE 20 ENE CLE 30 ESE BUF 15 NNW UCA 10
NW BAF 25 SSW GON.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT NWD WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED FROM THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS
EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AND SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION.  WEAK IMPULSE NOW OVERSPREADING THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING QUICKLY ESEWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. LEADING SYSTEM MAY ACT ON THE VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT LATER TODAY AND SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A W-E
ORIENTED PSEUDO-WARM FRONT EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL MN.  THOUGH SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...20-30 KT OF SFC-6 KM
SHEAR WILL STILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/LINES AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH ANY DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES...AND ANY
RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT...WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME
BECOME ESTABLISHED.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY
THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...MID ATLANTIC...
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE DELMARVA TOWARDS THE
NJ COAST...WITH SUBTLE LOW/MID VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON MORNING
VIS IMAGERY OVER SERN PA.  THIS MAY BE ENHANCING ONGOING STORMS OVER
NERN MD/DE AT 15Z.  GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF
MODEST WLY FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS
DE...ERN MD...SRN NJ THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NRN
VA/S-CENTRAL PA AND ALSO SPREAD EWD LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BECOME SCATTERED OVER THIS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG N-NW PERIPHERY OF WEAK UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.  SEVERAL DAYS OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE
LIMITED/WEAKENED LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION ACCORDING TO LATEST
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS.  THUS WILL DROP PROBABILITIES A NOTCH OVER THIS REGION...WITH
RESULTANT DELETION OF CATEGORICAL RISK AREA.  HOWEVER...PULSE STORMS
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER A LARGE AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS/MID SOUTH TOWARDS THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL FL...
OVERALL SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS
OVER FL.  MID LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW SHOULD ADVANCE WEST COAST SEABREEZE
WELL INLAND AND POSSIBLY COLLIDE WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED SUGGESTING ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
DAY.  HOWEVER...MID LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST
DAY OR TWO WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES AND VERTICAL THETA-E
DIFFERENCES NOW NEAR 20C AT TBW THIS MORNING.  THUS...ENVIRONMENT
MAY BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS THAN WAS THE CASE DURING THE
PAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS.

...BLACK HILLS REGION...
TERRAIN FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MID LEVEL
MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH-BASED
STORMS INTO WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON.  HAIL AND ISOLATED
STRONG/MARGINALLY-SEVERE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.