[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071300
SWODY1
SPC AC 071259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
GWO 40 ENE PBF 25 ESE UNO 20 WNW ALN 10 NE CMI 20 SSE LAF 20 E BMG
35 N HOP MSL 25 W CBM 10 WNW GWO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
MCW 15 SW SPW 25 E BKX 30 NW STC 25 SE DLH 30 WNW RHI 40 NNW VOK 35
ENE MCW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ANJ 35 W JVL
35 NNW OTM 30 E OFK 35 ESE BUB 20 SW HSI 20 E MHK 40 S OJC 45 WSW
JEF 30 SE UIN 40 N LAF 30 SSW FDY 30 E CLE 30 ESE BUF 30 N UCA 10 NW
BAF 25 SSW GON ...CONT... CZZ RAL 35 NE SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 35 N
FAT 30 WSW SVE 10 SSE MHS 35 NNW LMT 40 NNE BKE 40 SW GTF 50 WNW MLS
10 NNE GDV 60 NNE ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR OH/TN AND
MS VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD AS THE MAIN BAND OF WLYS REMAINS N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. 
UPR LOW NOW OVER AL SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NE AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO
BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NERN U.S.
AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER KS/OK CONTINUES SEWD.

...LWR OH/TN AND MS VLYS...
SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL PULSE
STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR OH/TN AND MS VLYS TODAY...ON NW FRINGE
OF WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY AL UPR LOW.  WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OF
PREVIOUS DAYS HAS SOMEWHAT LESSENED DEGREE OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH.  BUT RESIDUAL
PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT
W/N INTO THE PARTS OF THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE STRONGEST HEATING
SHOULD OCCUR.  GIVEN VERY WEAK DEEP SHEAR...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE WIND DAMAGE FROM WET MICROBURSTS...AND...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LWR OH VLY...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

...UPR MS VLY...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY
THIS PERIOD...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
BENEATH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT
CROSSING THE NRN PLNS. SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT HEIGHT
CHANGES WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT THAT UPR FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
DIFFLUENT.

COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WEAK FRONT STALLED W/E ACROSS REGION AND PERHAPS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ERN DAKS MAY SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER PARTS OF MN AND WRN WI. DEGREE
OF STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM GIVEN /1/ ABSENCE OF
QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY AND /2/ QUESTIONS
REGARDING CAP. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME
AND...IF STORMS DO INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500 TO 4500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30
KT.  THUS SETUP WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WITH HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND. ASSUMING STORMS DO FORM...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH CLUSTER MOVING SE ACROSS SRN MN INTO WI AND NRN IA
BY LATE EVENING.

...CNTRL AND SRN FL...
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL
FL...HELPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN
ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY PER EYW RAOB.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.