[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070551
SWODY1
SPC AC 070550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
JAN 30 S GLH 40 SW JBR 40 NW CGI 55 SSE MTO 25 S BMG 30 SSW SDF 35
WSW BNA 15 NE TCL MEI 10 ESE JAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL 35 NE SBA 35
SW BFL 15 N BFL 50 ESE FAT 45 WSW SVE 25 W MHS 20 NNE MFR 40 NNE BKE
40 SW GTF 80 NNE BIL 10 S GDV 50 NNE ISN ...CONT... 10 WSW ANJ 30 W
DBQ 40 S HSI 40 NE DDC 15 W P28 25 W BVO 10 S JEF 15 NNW FWA 20 SSE
CLE 20 S ROC 15 NNE UCA 10 NW BAF 25 SSW GON.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEY...

...OH AND TN VALLEY...
A WEAK UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE SERN US TODAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F...SFC HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
THE WEAK SHEAR. FORECAST CONVECTION FROM THE GFS AND NAMKF HAVE
HANDLED THE TWO PREVIOUS DAYS OK WITH SEVERE ON THE NW EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. TODAY...THE SOLUTIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS
EXCEPT SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN KY SWWD TO CNTRL MS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE GREATEST. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AS THE CELLS PEAK FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HAIL REPORTS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS
ACROSS THE REGION.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN US TODAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING ESEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS MN AND SE SD. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE
APPEARS UNCERTAIN AND THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
CONCERNING STORM INITIATION. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500 TO 4500
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT SUGGESTING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. HOWEVER...WILL
NOT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INITIATION. IF
STORMS INITIATE...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO WI AND NRN IA BY LATE EVENING.


...MID-ATLANTIC...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN US SUNDAY. NAM AND GFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT...MOVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
INTO ERN AND CNTRL NY. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND SFC HEATING
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
PULSE SEVERE THREAT CONSIDERING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 15 KT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND
BRIEF CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING.

...SRN CA/SW AZ...
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA AND SWRN
AZ BY MIDDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST THIS AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL AND SRN FL...
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL
HELPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
F AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS STORMS WEAKEN AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH.

..BROYLES.. 08/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.