[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061537
SWODY1
SPC AC 061536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
PBF 20 SW PAH 50 ENE BWG 35 NE TYS 10 SSE RMG 30 ENE MEI 20 SE JAN
25 ENE MLU 40 NE PBF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 10 S RAL 25
NE SBA 40 SW BFL 20 SSE BFL 55 NNE BFL 45 W TVL 55 E MHS 55 SE RDM
40 NE BKE 30 W BTM 45 ENE BIL 35 W RAP 60 SW MBG 50 NNE MBG 25 NNW
JMS 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 25 S CMX 25 SW RWF 45 SSW BBW 15 WNW HLC
35 S RSL 35 ENE CNU 45 WSW SPI 20 NNE DNV 20 W MFD 15 E PSB 20 NE
NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH AND LOWER MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...

...MID SOUTH INTO THE CHESAPEAKE...
AIR MASS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS NEWD INTO VA.  WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER AL/FL PANHANDLE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...EWD TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONSIDERABLY.  GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD FROM THE DELMARVA REGION ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP
SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.  AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL REMAIN SHORT-LIVED AND WEAKLY
ORGANIZED GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR. THOUGH...HAIL AND ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS /DUE TO SUBSIDENCE NNW OF UPPER
LOW/ WILL LIKELY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS INTO NRN MS/NRN AL/TN.  THOUGH
SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN PULSE-TYPE...REPORTS MAY BE CONCENTRATED
ENOUGH ACROSS THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL SLGT RISK AREA.

...FL...
COMBINATION OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 TEMPS AROUND -8C/ AND
STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS MUCH OF FL BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  EXPECT EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL REMAIN JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND GIVEN WEAK WLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE
THIS MORNING.  RESULTANT INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY INTO CENTRAL/ERN FL WITHIN VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
MITIGATED BY LACK OF SHEAR/STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...WET
MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.

...NRN MS TOWARDS THE NRN RED RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW
DIGGING TOWARDS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO ERN ND/NRN
MN LATER TODAY.  AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BY 21Z /I.E. MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30
KT/.  PRIMARY NEGATIVE WILL BE OVERALL SUBSIDENT REGIME IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY
THE ETA-KF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FAR NRN MN.  POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WARRANTS LOW
PROBABILITIES...THOUGH APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A SLGT RISK ATTM.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.