[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061929
SWODY1
SPC AC 061927

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
JAN 35 S GLH 25 NNE GLH 15 N MKL 15 NW HOP 65 SW LEX 25 NNE LOZ 35
SE LOZ 15 NNW RMG 10 SW BHM 35 N MEI 30 NW JAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 10 S RAL 25
NE SBA 40 SW BFL 20 SSE BFL 55 NNE BFL 45 W TVL 55 E MHS 55 SE RDM
40 NE BKE 30 W BTM 45 ENE BIL 35 W RAP 60 SW MBG 50 NNE MBG 25 NNW
JMS 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 25 S CMX 25 SW RWF 45 SSW BBW 15 WNW HLC
35 S RSL 30 ENE CNU 40 SSE SPI 15 ENE CMH 30 ESE PSB 20 SE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH NEWD TO SERN KY...

...MID-SOUTH TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA THIS
AFTN.  VWPS SHOW ENHANCED...ALBEIT WEAK...UNIDIRECTIONAL NELY FLOW
REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ALONG THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW. TSTMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED ALONG THE FAVORED
TERRAIN FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-SOUTH.  ANTICIPATING
A REGION WITH ANY HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS IS VERY DIFFICULT IN
A WEAK FLOW REGIME/HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT THAT FAVORS BRIEF PULSE
TYPE UPDRAFTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO ARC FROM NRN MS NEWD
INTO ERN KY WHERE MLCAPES WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.  GIVEN
ORIENTATION OF THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...TSTMS COULD CLUSTER
TOGETHER AND PROPAGATE SWWD PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/
HAIL...PRIMARILY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOST UNSTABLE /SLGT
RISK AREA/.  OUTSIDE THE SLGT RISK AREA...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DISORGANIZED.  TSTMS
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY/MID-EVE.

...FL...
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ALONG THE E AND W
COAST SEABREEZES.  W COAST BOUNDARY SHOULD COLLIDE WITH THE E COAST
BOUNDARY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FL PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.  GIVEN COOL H5 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND MINUS 8C ATOP VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...VIGOROUS/TALL
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.  WEAK SHEAR WILL FAVOR BRIEF PULSE TYPE
MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  TSTMS WILL WEAKEN
LATER THIS EVE.

...NRN MN...
AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION...EXTENDED FROM NWRN ONT SWWD INTO
NRN ND.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE BUT REMAINS CAPPED.  THOUGH STRONGER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
REMAIN N OF THE BORDER ACROSS NWRN ONT TONIGHT...LATEST NAMKF AND
18Z RUC SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP SWD INTO FAR NRN MN
AFTER 00Z ALONG THE FRONT.  WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT
FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT STRONGER
STORMS WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER WHERE STRONGEST WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED.

..RACY.. 08/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.