[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061256
SWODY1
SPC AC 061254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
ELD 20 WSW DYR 50 ENE BWG 35 NE TYS 10 SW RMG 15 NE MEI 25 SE HEZ 45
WNW ESF 20 NW ELD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CMX 25 SW RWF
45 SSW BBW 15 WNW HLC 35 S RSL 35 ENE CNU 30 SW SPI 35 ESE LAF 35
NNW CMH PSB 20 NE NEL ...CONT... 20 SE SAN 10 NW RAL 25 NE SBA 40 SW
BFL 20 SSE BFL 55 NNE BFL 35 W TVL 55 E MHS 55 SE RDM 40 NE BKE 30 W
BTM 55 E BIL 35 W RAP 55 NNW PHP 10 SSE BIS 50 NNE BIS 85 NE DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN
VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
LITTLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD...
WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE VLYS REMAINING WELL N OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER.  A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW OVER AL/MS MAY
OCCUR AS IMPULSE NOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS CONTINUES TO SETTLE
SLOWLY SEWD.

...LWR TN AND MS VLYS...
WITH DEEP SHEAR RANGING FROM WEAK TO VERY WEAK ACROSS THE LWR
48...THE PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE
MINIMAL.  NEVERTHELESS...NW FRINGE OF AL/MS UPR LOW MAY ONCE AGAIN
BE A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED PULSE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WET MICROBURSTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL DRYING
PROGRESSES SW FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE LWR MS VLY...POTENTIALLY
ENHANCING STORM DOWNDRAFTS.  HEATING SHOULD BE STRONG IN THIS
REGION...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8-9C/KM IN THE
LOWEST 3KM.  ANOTHER FAVORABLE FACTOR IS MODEST BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL
ENELY FLOW /PER JAN RAOB AND OKO PROFILER/ THAT WILL FOSTER COLD
POOL ELONGATION/STORM PROPAGATION TOWARD THE SW...AND MAY PROMOTE
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO BANDS.  THE STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...
WEAKEN WITH SUNSET.

...ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FROM THE FL PENINSULA WWD
ACROSS THE SRN U.S. INTO THE SWRN DESERTS...WHERE MODEST ELY LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ON SRN FRINGE OF GRT BASIN RIDGE.  WITH
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER REGION...ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM INTO NRN/WRN
AZ.  SOME OF THESE COULD ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND PRODUCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.